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In this paper, we obtain quantitative, non-asymptotic, and data-dependent \textit{Bernstein-von Mises type} bounds on the normal approximation of the posterior distribution in exponential family models with arbitrary centring and scaling.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-14 Adrian Fischer , Robert E. Gaunt , Gesine Reinert , Yvik Swan

This paper establishes sharp dimension-free concentration and expectation bounds for the deviation of a sample cross-covariance matrix from its mean. For sub-Gaussian random vectors, we prove a high-probability operator-norm bound governed…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-19 Jiaheng Chen , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

In this paper, we study finite-sample properties of the least squares estimator in first order autoregressive processes. By leveraging a result from decoupling theory, we derive upper bounds on the probability that the estimate deviates by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-26 Rodrigo A. González , Cristian R. Rojas

Known Bernstein-type upper bounds on the tail probabilities for sums of independent zero-mean sub-exponential random variables are improved in several ways at once. The new upper bounds have a certain optimality property.

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-15 Iosif Pinelis

Exponential inequalities are main tools in machine learning theory. To prove exponential inequalities for non i.i.d random variables allows to extend many learning techniques to these variables. Indeed, much work has been done both on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-03 Pierre Alquier , Paul Doukhan , Xiequan Fan

This paper is the Part II of a serious work about T product tensors focusing at establishing new probability bounds for sums of random, independent, T product tensors. These probability bounds characterize large deviation behavior of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-10 Shih Yu Chang , Yimin Wei

We address the problem of learning an unknown smooth function and its derivatives from noisy pointwise evaluations under the supremum norm. While classical nonparametric regression provides a strong theoretical foundation, traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Davide Maran , Marcello Restelli

Let $(\xi_i)_{i=1,...,n}$ be a sequence of independent and symmetric random variables. We consider the upper bounds on tail probabilities of self-normalized deviations $$ \mathbf{P} \Big( \max_{1\leq k \leq n} \sum_{i=1}^{k} |\xi_i|\big/…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-05 Xiequan Fan

We study concentration inequalities for structured weighted sums of random data, including (i) tensor inner products and (ii) sequential matrix sums. We are interested in tail bounds and concentration inequalities for those structured…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Chen Cheng , Rina Foygel Barber

While effective concentration inequalities for suprema of empirical processes exist under boundedness or strict tail assumptions, no comparable results have been available under considerably weaker assumptions. In this paper, we derive…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-23 Johannes Lederer , Sara van de Geer

We give improved constants for data dependent and variance sensitive confidence bounds, called empirical Bernstein bounds, and extend these inequalities to hold uniformly over classes of functionswhose growth function is polynomial in the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2009-07-23 Andreas Maurer , Massimiliano Pontil

We derive strong approximations to the supremum of the non-centered empirical process indexed by a possibly unbounded VC-type class of functions by the suprema of the Gaussian and bootstrap processes. The bounds of these approximations are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-08 Victor Chernozhukov , Denis Chetverikov , Kengo Kato

Incomplete U-statistics have been proposed to accelerate computation. They use only a subset of the subsamples required for kernel evaluations by complete U-statistics. This paper gives a finite sample bound in the style of Bernstein's…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-08 Andreas Maurer

This paper derives non-asymptotic error bounds for nonlinear stochastic approximation algorithms in the Wasserstein-$p$ distance. To obtain explicit finite-sample guarantees for the last iterate, we develop a coupling argument that compares…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Seo Taek Kong , R. Srikant

We focus the use of \emph{row sampling} for approximating matrix algorithms. We give applications to matrix multipication; sparse matrix reconstruction; and, \math{\ell_2} regression. For a matrix \math{\matA\in\R^{m\times d}} which…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2010-08-04 Malik Magdon-Ismail

Suppose $\{ X_k \}_{k \in \mathbb{Z}}$ is a sequence of bounded independent random matrices with common dimension $d\times d$ and common expectation $\mathbb{E}[ X_k ]= X$. Under these general assumptions, the normalized random matrix…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-15 Amelia Henriksen , Rachel Ward

This paper introduces a practical sampling method for training surrogate models in the context of uncertainty propagation. We propose a heuristic method to uniformly draw samples within highest density regions of the density given by the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-15 Jocelyn Minini , Micha Wasem

We introduce a Bernstein-type inequality which serves to uniformly control quadratic forms of gaussian variables. The latter can for example be used to derive sharp model selection criteria for linear estimation in linear regression and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-22 Ikhlef Bechar

We propose an unconstrained stochastic approximation method of finding the optimal measure change (in an a priori parametric family) for Monte Carlo simulations. We consider different parametric families based on the Girsanov theorem and…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-20 Vincent Lemaire , Gilles Pagès

In this article we consider the problem of choosing an optimal sampling scheme for the regression problem simultaneously with that of model selection. We consider a batch type approach and an on-line approach following algorithms recently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-30 Ana Karina Fermin , Carenne Ludeña