Related papers: Correlation breakdown, copula credit default model…
We review recent progress in modeling credit risk for correlated assets. We start from the Merton model which default events and losses are derived from the asset values at maturity. To estimate the time development of the asset values, the…
Credit and liquidity risks represent main channels of financial contagion for interbank lending markets. On one hand, banks face potential losses whenever their counterparties are under distress and thus unable to fulfill their obligations.…
This paper derives the expressions of correlations between prices of two assets, returns of two assets, and price-return correlations of two assets that depend on statistical moments and correlations of the current values, past values, and…
With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…
We study the incentives of banks in a financial network, where the network consists of debt contracts and credit default swaps (CDSs) between banks. One of the most important questions in such a system is the problem of deciding which of…
This paper studies the valuation of a class of default swaps with the embedded option to switch to a different premium and notional principal anytime prior to a credit event. These are early exercisable contracts that give the protection…
In this paper, we performs a credit risk analysis, on the data of past loan applicants of a company named Lending Club. The calculation required the use of exploratory data analysis and machine learning classification algorithms, namely,…
We study a notion of good-deal hedging, that corresponds to good-deal valuation for generalized good-deal constraints. Under model uncertainty about the market prices of risk of hedging assets, a robust approach leads to a reduction or even…
A taxonomy of large financial crashes proposed in the literature locates the burst of speculative bubbles due to endogenous causes in the framework of extreme stock market crashes, defined as falls of market prices that are outlier with…
In a discrete-time setting, we study arbitrage concepts in the presence of convex trading constraints. We show that solvability of portfolio optimization problems is equivalent to absence of arbitrage of the first kind, a condition weaker…
Mandatory emission trading schemes are being established around the world. Participants of such market schemes are always exposed to risks. This leads to the creation of an accompanying market for emission-linked derivatives. To evaluate…
Multifractal detrended cross-correlation methodology is described and applied to Foreign exchange (Forex) market time series. Fluctuations of high frequency exchange rates of eight major world currencies over 2010-2018 period are used to…
A stock market is called diverse if no stock can dominate the market in terms of relative capitalization. On one hand, this natural property leads to arbitrage in diffusion models under mild assumptions. On the other hand, it is also easy…
It is commonly believed that the correlations between stock returns increase in high volatility periods. We investigate how much of these correlations can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time…
We amend and extend the Chiarella model of financial markets to deal with arbitrary long-term value drifts in a consistent way. This allows us to improve upon existing calibration schemes, opening the possibility of calibrating individual…
A new procedure is presented for the objective comparison and evaluation of default definitions. This allows the lender to find a default threshold at which the financial loss of a loan portfolio is minimised, in accordance with Basel II.…
This paper builds on "Collective Arbitrage and the Value of Cooperation" by Biagini et al. (2025, forthcoming in "Finance and Stochastics"), which introduced in discrete time the notions of collective arbitrage and super-replication in a…
We investigate the optimal execution of contracts that are used in merger\&acquisition deals. We consider cash-settled and physically delivered contracts between a broker and a counterpart. Contracts are linear (total returns swaps),…
"Fundamental theorem of asset pricing" roughly states that absence of arbitrage opportunity in a market is equivalent to the existence of a risk-neutral probability. We give a simple counterexample to this oversimplified statement. Prices…
Mortgage default prediction is a core task in financial risk management, and machine learning models are increasingly used to estimate default probabilities and provide interpretable signals for downstream decisions. In real-world mortgage…