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In this paper, we attempt to shed light on a new class of nonstationary random fields which exhibit, what we call, local invariant nonstationarity. We argue that the local invariant property has a special interaction with a new generalized…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-14 Ethan Anderes , Joe Guinness

Adaptation-relevant predictions of climate change are often derived by combining climate model simulations in a multi-model ensemble. Model evaluation methods used in performance-based ensemble weighting schemes have limitations in the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-04-19 Mala Virdee , Markus Kaiser , Emily Shuckburgh , Carl Henrik Ek , Ieva Kazlauskaite

This article introduces the class of continuous time locally stationary wavelet processes. Continuous time models enable us to properly provide scale-based time series models for irregularly-spaced observations for the first time, while…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Henry Antonio Palasciano , Marina I. Knight , Guy P. Nason

This paper investigates the identification of quantiles and quantile regression parameters when observations are set valued. We define the identification set of quantiles of random sets in a way that extends the definition of quantiles for…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-10 Arie Beresteanu , Yuya Sasaki

The article contains an overview over locally stationary processes. At the beginning time varying autoregressive processes are discussed in detail - both as as a deep example and an important class of locally stationary processes. In the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-06 Rainer Dahlhaus

In the prediction of oscillating time series, the interest is in the turning points of successive oscillations rather than the samples themselves. For this purpose a scheme has been proposed; the state space reconstruction is limited to the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2008-09-15 D. Kugiumtzis , I. Vlachos

We establish self-norming central limit theorems for non-stationary time series arising as observations on sequential maps possessing an indifferent fixed point. These transformations are obtained by perturbing the slope in the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-09-28 Matthew Nicol , Andrew Török , Sandro Vaienti

This paper offers a new approach to modeling and forecasting of nonstationary time series with applications to volatility modeling for financial data. The approach is based on the assumption of local homogeneity: for every time point, there…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-06-10 Vladimir Spokoiny

We study approximation of non-autonomous linear differential equations with variable delay over infinite intervals. We use piecewise constant argument to obtain a corresponding discrete difference equation. The study of numerical…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2016-07-26 Daniel Sepúlveda

This paper investigates locally linear regression for locally stationary time series and develops theoretical results for locally linear smoothing and transfer learning. Existing analyses have focused on local constant estimators and given…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-19 Jinwoo Park

Limit cycle oscillations are phenomena arising in nonlinear dynamical systems and characterized by periodic, locally-stable, and self-sustained state trajectories. Systems controlled in a closed loop along a periodic trajectory can also be…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-03-20 Defne E. Ozan , Mingzhou Yin , Andrea Iannelli , Roy S. Smith

This paper proposes a model-free nonparametric estimator of conditional quantile of a time series regression model where the covariate vector is repeated many times for different values of the response. This type of data is abound in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-07 Soudeep Deb , Kaushik Jana

Central limit theorems are established for the sum, over a spatial region, of observations from a linear process on a $d$-dimensional lattice. This region need not be rectangular, but can be irregularly-shaped. Separate results are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-07 S. N. Lahiri , Peter M. Robinson

This article addresses a modification of local time for stochastic processes, to be referred to as `natural local time'. It is prompted by theoretical developments arising in mathematical treatments of recent experiments and observations of…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-03 Thilanka Appuhamillage , Vrushali Bokil , Enrique Thomann , Edward Waymire , Brian Wood

We consider the problem of inference for non-stationary time series with heavy-tailed error distribution. Under a time-varying linear process framework we show that there exists a suitable local approximation by a stationary process with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-09 Fumiya Akashi , Konstantinos Fokianos , Junichi Hirukawa

In this paper, we present a statistical framework for modeling conditional quantiles of spatial processes assumed to be strongly mixing in space. We establish the $L_1$ consistency and the asymptotic normality of the kernel conditional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-26 Sophie Dabo Niang , Baba Thiam

For a broad class of nonlinear time series known as Bernoulli shifts, we establish the asymptotic normality of the smoothed periodogram estimator of the long-run variance. This estimator uses only a narrow band of Fourier frequencies around…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-09 Vaidotas Characiejus , Piotr Kokoszka , Xiangdong Meng

Nonparametric regression is a standard statistical tool with increased importance in the Big Data era. Boundary points pose additional difficulties but local polynomial regression can be used to alleviate them. Local linear regression, for…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2017-04-04 Srinjoy Das , Dimitris N. Politis

We introduce a general theory on stationary approximations for locally stationary continuous-time processes. Based on the stationary approximation, we use $\theta$-weak dependence to establish laws of large numbers and central limit type…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-01 Robert Stelzer , Bennet Ströh

This paper develops change-point methods for the spectrum of a locally stationary time series. We focus on series with a bounded spectral density that change smoothly under the null hypothesis but exhibits change-points or becomes less…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-08 Alessandro Casini , Pierre Perron