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Bayesian methods are useful for statistical inference. However, real-world problems can be challenging using Bayesian methods when the data analyst has only limited prior knowledge. In this paper we consider a class of problems, called…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-20 Yixuan Qiu , Lingsong Zhang , Chuanhai Liu

In this manuscript, we propose newly-derived exponential quadrature rules for stiff linear differential equations with time-dependent fractional sources in the form $h(t^r)$, with $0<r<1$ and $h$ a sufficiently smooth function. To construct…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-26 Marco Caliari , Fabio Cassini

We formulate Ensemble-Conditional Gaussian Processes (Ens-CGP), a finite-dimensional synthesis that centers ensemble-based inference on the conditional Gaussian law. Conditional Gaussian processes (CGP) arise directly from Gaussian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-17 Sai Ravela , Jae Deok Kim , Kenneth Gee , Xingjian Yan , Samson Mercier , Lubna Albarghouty , Anamitra Saha

The Kalman filter combines forecasts and new observations to obtain an estimation which is optimal in the sense of a minimum average quadratic error. The Kalman filter has two main restrictions: (i) the dynamical system is assumed linear…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 D. Sornette , K. Ide

Most Kalman filter extensions assume Gaussian noise and when the noise is non-Gaussian, usually other types of filters are used. These filters, such as particle filter variants, are computationally more demanding than Kalman type filters.…

Applications · Statistics 2021-05-19 Matti Raitoharju , Henri Nurminen , Demet Cilden-Guler , Simo Särkkä

The Cauchy problem for fractional derivatives linear systems of ordinary differential equations with constant coefficients is considered, where at first the analytic expressions are given through the matrix exponent of its corresponding…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-05-18 Fikret A. Aliev , N. A. Aliev , N. A. Safarova , K. G. Kasimova , N. I Velieva

Recursive estimation of nonlinear dynamical systems is an important problem that arises in several engineering applications. Consistent and accurate propagation of uncertainties is important to ensuring good estimation performance. It is…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-03-16 Dilshad Raihan Akkam Veettil , Suman Chakravorty

We study secure source-coding with causal disclosure, under the Gaussian distribution. The optimality of Gaussian auxiliary random variables is shown in various scenarios. We explicitly characterize the tradeoff between the rates of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-06-16 Sanket Satpathy , Paul Cuff

Let us consider the deconvolution problem, that is, to recover a latent source $x(\cdot)$ from the observations $\mathbf{y} = [y_1,\ldots,y_N]$ of a convolution process $y = x\star h + \eta$, where $\eta$ is an additive noise, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-19 Felipe Tobar , Arnaud Robert , Jorge F. Silva

Practical Bayes filters often assume the state distribution of each time step to be Gaussian for computational tractability, resulting in the so-called Gaussian filters. When facing nonlinear systems, Gaussian filters such as extended…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-17 Wenhan Cao , Tianyi Zhang , Zeju Sun , Chang Liu , Stephen S. -T. Yau , Shengbo Eben Li

We formulate probabilistic numerical approximations to solutions of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as problems in Gaussian process (GP) regression with non-linear measurement functions. This is achieved by defining the measurement…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-25 Filip Tronarp , Hans Kersting , Simo Särkkä , Philipp Hennig

Lagrangian averaging is a valuable tool for the analysis and modelling of multiscale processes in fluid dynamics. The numerical computation of Lagrangian (time) averages from simulation data is challenging, however. It can be carried out by…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-12-23 Abhijeet Minz , Lois E. Baker , Hossein A. Kafiabad , Jacques Vanneste

In data-mining applications, we are frequently faced with a large fraction of missing entries in the data matrix, which is problematic for most discriminant machine learning algorithms. A solution that we explore in this paper is the use of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-09 Olivier Delalleau , Aaron Courville , Yoshua Bengio

In this paper, we propose an approach to address the problems with ambiguity in tuning the process and observation noises for a discrete-time linear Kalman filter. Conventional approaches to tuning (e.g. using normalized estimation error…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-08-25 Zhaozhong Chen , Christoffer Heckman , Simon Julier , Nisar Ahmed

The paper considers the problem of estimating a $p\geq2$\ dimensional mean vector of a multivariate conditionally normal distribution under quadratic loss. The problem of this type arises when estimating the parameters in a continuous time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-27 Evgeny Pchelintsev

We consider the Bayesian optimal filtering problem: i.e. estimating some conditional statistics of a latent time-series signal from an observation sequence. Classical approaches often rely on the use of assumed or estimated transition and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-16 Adrian N. Bishop , Edwin V. Bonilla

This paper develops a high-accuracy algorithm for time fractional wave problems, which employs a spectral method in the temporal discretization and a finite element method in the spatial discretization. Moreover, stability and convergence…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-08-10 Binjie Li , Hao Luo , Xiaoping Xie

We introduce the variational filtering EM algorithm, a simple, general-purpose method for performing variational inference in dynamical latent variable models using information from only past and present variables, i.e. filtering. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-14 Joseph Marino , Milan Cvitkovic , Yisong Yue

A classical method for risk-sensitive nonlinear control is the iterative linear exponential quadratic Gaussian algorithm. We present its convergence analysis from a first-order optimization viewpoint. We identify the objective that the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-21 Vincent Roulet , Maryam Fazel , Siddhartha Srinivasa , Zaid Harchaoui

A generalized matrix-pencil approach is proposed for the estimation of complex exponential components with segmented signal samples, which is very efficient and provides super-resolution estimations. It is applicable to the signals sampled…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-28 Jianping Wang , Alexander Yarovoy