Related papers: Rigorous confidence bounds for MCMC under a geomet…
We develop a Monte Carlo-free approach to inference post output from randomized algorithms with a convex loss and a convex penalty. The pivotal statistic based on a truncated law, called the selective pivot, usually lacks closed form…
The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It is common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention…
The linear fractional stable motion generalizes two prominent classes of stochastic processes, namely stable L\'evy processes, and fractional Brownian motion. For this reason it may be regarded as a basic building block for continuous time…
Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is a popular class of algorithms for scalable Bayesian inference. However, these algorithms include hyperparameters such as step size or batch size that influence the accuracy of…
The purpose of the present paper is to establish explicit bounds on moderate deviation probabilities for a rather general class of geometric functionals enjoying the stabilization property, under Poisson input and the assumption of a…
This paper surveys various results about Markov chains on general (non-countable) state spaces. It begins with an introduction to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which provide the motivation and context for the theory which…
We consider a high-probability non-asymptotic confidence estimation in the $\ell^2$-regularized non-linear least-squares setting with fixed design. In particular, we study confidence estimation for local minimizers of the regularized…
We study stochastic approximation procedures for approximately solving a $d$-dimensional linear fixed point equation based on observing a trajectory of length $n$ from an ergodic Markov chain. We first exhibit a non-asymptotic bound of the…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) lies at the core of modern Bayesian methodology, much of which would be impossible without it. Thus, the convergence properties of MCMCs have received significant attention, and in particular, proving…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a simulation method commonly used for estimating expectations with respect to a given distribution. We consider estimating the covariance matrix of the asymptotic multivariate normal distribution of a…
A key quantity of interest in Bayesian inference are expectations of functions with respect to a posterior distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a fundamental tool to consistently compute these expectations via averaging samples drawn…
We quantify the minimax rate for a nonparametric regression model over a star-shaped function class $\mathcal{F}$ with bounded diameter. We obtain a minimax rate of ${\varepsilon^{\ast}}^2\wedge\mathrm{diam}(\mathcal{F})^2$ where…
We demonstrate the use of a variational method to determine a quantitative lower bound on the rate of convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms as a function of the target density and proposal density. The bound relies on…
Presented is a description of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) parameter estimation routine for use with interferometric gravitational radiational data in searches for binary neutron star inspiral signals. Five parameters associated with…
An efficient conditioning technique, the so-called Brownian Bridge simulation, has previously been applied to eliminate pricing bias that arises in applications of the standard discrete-time Monte Carlo method to evaluate options written on…
The naive importance sampling estimator, based on samples from a single importance density, can be numerically unstable. Instead, we consider generalized importance sampling estimators where samples from more than one probability…
Randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) methods estimate the mean of a random variable by sampling an integrand at $n$ equidistributed points. For scrambled digital nets, the resulting variance is typically $\tilde O(n^{-\theta})$ where…
Recent advances in stochastic gradient variational inference have made it possible to perform variational Bayesian inference with posterior approximations containing auxiliary random variables. This enables us to explore a new synthesis of…
The use of MCMC algorithms in high dimensional Bayesian problems has become routine. This has spurred so-called convergence complexity analysis, the goal of which is to ascertain how the convergence rate of a Monte Carlo Markov chain scales…
Accurate estimates of long-term risk probabilities and their gradients are critical for many stochastic safe control methods. However, computing such risk probabilities in real-time and in unseen or changing environments is challenging.…