Related papers: Rigorous confidence bounds for MCMC under a geomet…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provide a very general recipe for estimating properties of complicated distributions. While their use has become commonplace and there is a large literature on MCMC theory and practice, MCMC users…

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

An important step in the Markov reward approach to error bounds on stationary performance measures of Markov chains is to bound the bias terms. Affine functions have been successfully used for these bounds for various models, but there are…

We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…

A general lower bound is developed for the minimax risk when estimating an arbitrary functional. The bound is based on testing two composite hypotheses and is shown to be effective in estimating the nonsmooth functional…

We consider a univariate semimartingale model for (the logarithm of) an asset price, containing jumps having possibly infinite activity (IA). The nonparametric threshold estimator of the integrated variance IV proposed in Mancini 2009 is…

We derive a Cram\'er-Rao lower bound for the variance of Floquet multiplier estimates that have been constructed from stable limit cycles perturbed by noise. To do so, we consider perturbed periodic orbits in the plane. We use a periodic…

This paper deals with nonparametric estimators of the drift function $b$ computed from independent continuous observations, on a compact time interval, of the solution of a stochastic differential equation driven by the fractional Brownian…

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

We prove non-asymptotic error bounds for Sequential MCMC methods in the case of multimodal target distributions. Our bounds depend in an explicit way on upper bounds on relative densities, on constants associated with local mixing…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is computationally expensive, especially for complex models. Alternative methods make simplifying assumptions about the posterior to reduce computational burden, but their impact on predictive…

The widespread use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for high-dimensional applications has motivated research into the scalability of these algorithms with respect to the dimension of the problem. Despite this, numerous problems…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are used to estimate features of interest of a distribution. The Monte Carlo error in estimation has an asymptotic normal distribution whose multivariate nature has so far been ignored in the MCMC…

The recent paper "Simple confidence intervals for MCMC without CLTs" by J.S. Rosenthal, showed the derivation of a simple MCMC confidence interval using only Chebyshev's inequality, not CLT. That result required certain assumptions about…

We consider batch size selection for a general class of multivariate batch means variance estimators, which are computationally viable for high-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. We derive the asymptotic mean squared error…

A novel approach of accurately reconstructing storage ring's linear optics from turn-by-turn (TbT) data containing measurement error is introduced. This approach adopts a Bayesian inference based on the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC)…

We provide a general methodology for unbiased estimation for intractable stochastic models. We consider situations where the target distribution can be written as an appropriate limit of distributions, and where conventional approaches…

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Monte Carlo planners can often return sub-optimal actions, even if they are guaranteed to converge in the limit of infinite samples. Known asymptotic regret bounds do not provide any way to measure confidence of a recommended action at the…