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We consider continuous-space, discrete-time Markov chains on $\mathbb{R}^d$, that admit a finite number $N$ of metastable states. Our main motivation for investigating these processes is to analyse random Poincar\'e maps, which describe…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Nils Berglund

The spectral gap $\gamma$ of a finite, ergodic, and reversible Markov chain is an important parameter measuring the asymptotic rate of convergence. In applications, the transition matrix $P$ may be unknown, yet one sample of the chain up to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-25 Daniel Hsu , Aryeh Kontorovich , David A. Levin , Yuval Peres , Csaba Szepesvári

Let $\{X_n\}_{n\in\N}$ be a Markov chain on a measurable space $\X$ with transition kernel $P$ and let $V:\X\r[1,+\infty)$. The Markov kernel $P$ is here considered as a linear bounded operator on the weighted-supremum space $\cB_V$…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-06 Loïc Hervé , James Ledoux

We consider the irreducibility of switch-based Markov chains for the approximate uniform sampling of Hamiltonian cycles in a given undirected dense graph on $n$ vertices. As our main result, we show that every pair of Hamiltonian cycles in…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2020-11-20 Pieter Kleer , Viresh Patel , Fabian Stroh

We consider nonparametric estimation of the transition operator $P$ of a Markov chain and its transition density $p$ where the singular values of $P$ are assumed to decay exponentially fast. This is for instance the case for periodised,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-26 Matthias Löffler , Antoine Picard

Density dependent families of Markov chains, such as the stochastic models of mass-action chemical kinetics, converge for large values of the indexing parameter $N$ to deterministic systems of differential equations (Kurtz, 1970). Moreover…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-11 Enrico Bibbona , Roberta Sirovich

We propose a new approach for estimating the finite dimensional transition matrix of a Markov chain using a large number of independent sample paths observed at random times. The sample paths may be observed as few as two times, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Daphne Aurouet , Valentin Patilea

A rescaled Markov chain converges uniformly in probability to the solution of an ordinary differential equation, under carefully specified assumptions. The presentation is much simpler than those in the outside literature. The result may be…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 R. W. R. Darling

The problem of estimating an unknown discrete distribution from its samples is a fundamental tenet of statistical learning. Over the past decade, it attracted significant research effort and has been solved for a variety of divergence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-30 Yi Hao , Alon Orlitsky , Venkatadheeraj Pichapati

We present an algorithm that can efficiently compute a broad class of inferences for discrete-time imprecise Markov chains, a generalised type of Markov chains that allows one to take into account partially specified probabilities and other…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-02 Natan T'Joens , Thomas Krak , Jasper De Bock , Gert de Cooman

We investigate the convergence to (quasi--)equilibrium of a density dependent Markov chain in~${\mathbb Z}^d$, whose drift satisfies a system of ordinary differential equations having an attractive fixed point. For a sequence of such…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-21 Andrew Barbour , Graham Brightwell , Malwina Luczak

We study the following model of hidden Markov chain: $Y_i=X_i+\epsilon_i$, $ i=1,...,n+1$ with $(X_i)$ a real-valued positive recurrent and stationary Markov chain and $(\epsilon_i)_{1\leq i\leq n+1}$ a noise independent of the sequence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-03-27 Claire Lacour

Motivated by techniques developed in recent progress on lower bounds for sublinear time algorithms (Behnezhad, Roghani and Rubinstein, STOC 2023, FOCS 2023, and STOC 2024) we introduce and study a new class of randomized algorithmic…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Amir Azarmehr , Soheil Behnezhad , Alma Ghafari , Madhu Sudan

Markov random fields are used to model high dimensional distributions in a number of applied areas. Much recent interest has been devoted to the reconstruction of the dependency structure from independent samples from the Markov random…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2010-03-09 Guy Bresler , Elchanan Mossel , Allan Sly

We give computable bounds on the rate of convergence of the transition probabilities to the stationary distribution for a certain class of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. Our results are different from earlier estimates of Meyn and…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Peter H. Baxendale

Large deviation results are given for a class of perturbed nonhomogeneous Markov chains on finite state space which formally includes some stochastic optimization algorithms. Specifically, let {P_n} be a sequence of transition matrices on a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Zach Dietz , Sunder Sethuraman

A time-dependent finite-state Markov chain that uses doubly stochastic transition matrices, is considered. Entropic quantities that describe the randomness of the probability vectors, and also the randomness of the discrete paths, are…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-03-18 A. Vourdas

We investigate the problem of quantifying contraction coefficients of Markov transition kernels in Kantorovich ($L^1$ Wasserstein) distances. For diffusion processes, relatively precise quantitative bounds on contraction rates have recently…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-08-22 Andreas Eberle , Mateusz B. Majka

We present two data-driven procedures to estimate the transition density of an homogeneous Markov chain. The first yields to a piecewise constant estimator on a suitable random partition. By using an Hellinger-type loss, we establish…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-19 Mathieu Sart

The paper is devoted to studies of perturbed Markov chains commonly used for description of information networks. In such models, the matrix of transition probabilities for the corresponding Markov chain is usually regularised by adding a…

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