Related papers: Statistical inference for stochastic epidemic mode…
We consider a continuous-time Markov chain model of SIR disease dynamics with two levels of mixing. For this so-called stochastic households model, we provide two methods for inferring the model parameters---governing within-household…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…
The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…
Consider stochastic models for the spread of an infection in a structured community, where this structured community is itself described by a random network model. Some common network models and transmission models are defined and large…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
Tracking the spread of infectious disease during a pandemic has posed a great challenge to the governments and health sectors on a global scale. To facilitate informed public health decision-making, the concerned parties usually rely on…
Stochastic epidemic models describe the dynamics of an epidemic as a disease spreads through a population. Typically, only a fraction of cases are observed at a set of discrete times. The absence of complete information about the time…
We develop a stochastic epidemic model progressing over dynamic networks, where infection rates are heterogeneous and may vary with individual-level covariates. The joint dynamics are modeled as a continuous-time Markov chain such that…
These notes describe stochastic epidemics in a homogenous community. Our main concern is stochastic compartmental models (i.e. models where each individual belongs to a compartment, which stands for its status regarding the epidemic under…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…
We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…
Inferring how an epidemic will progress and what actions to take when presented with limited information is of critical importance for epidemiologists and health professionals. In real world settings, epidemiology data can be scarce or…
A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…
We analyze four models of epidemic spreading using a stochastic approach in which the primary stochastic variables are the numbers of individuals in each class. The stochastic approach is described by a master equation and the transition…
Traditional disease transmission models assume that the infectious period is exponentially distributed with a recovery rate fixed in time and across individuals. This assumption provides analytical and computational advantages, however it…
Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
This paper is a survey paper on stochastic epidemic models. A simple stochastic epidemic model is defined and exact and asymptotic model properties (relying on a large community) are presented. The purpose of modelling is illustrated by…