Related papers: Error Estimation in Large Spreadsheets using Bayes…
The frequency with which spreadsheets are used and the associated risk is well known. Many tools and techniques have been developed which help reduce risks associate with creating and maintaining spreadsheet. However, little consideration…
An important task for any large-scale organization is to prepare forecasts of key performance metrics. Often these organizations are structured in a hierarchical manner and for operational reasons, projections of these metrics may have been…
Inferences about hypotheses are ubiquitous in the cognitive sciences. Bayes factors provide one general way to compare different hypotheses by their compatibility with the observed data. Those quantifications can then also be used to choose…
Spreadsheet workbook contents are simple programs. Because of this, probabilistic programming techniques can be used to perform Bayesian inversion of spreadsheet computations. What is more, existing execution engines in spreadsheet…
Robust analysis of coauthorship networks is based on high quality data. However, ground-truth data are usually unavailable. Empirical data suffer several types of errors, a typical one of which is called merging error, identifying different…
Bayesian statistics plays a pivotal role in advancing medical science by enabling healthcare companies, regulators, and stakeholders to assess the safety and efficacy of new treatments, interventions, and medical procedures. The Bayesian…
In the design of clinical trials, it is essential to assess the design operating characteristics (e.g., power and the type I error rate). Common practice for the evaluation of operating characteristics in Bayesian clinical trials relies on…
This paper explores Bayesian estimation for categorical data, focusing on simple yet effective models that provide a foundation for applying more advanced methods accurately and reliably in real-world applications. We begin by revisiting…
In this report we discuss the treatment of statistical errors in cut efficiencies. The two commonly used methods for the calculation of the errors, Poissonian and Binomial, are shown to be defective. We derive the form of the underlying…
The Net Promoter Score is a simple measure used by several companies as indicator of customer loyalty. Studies that address the statistical properties of this measure are still scarce and none of them considered the sample size…
The SSMI methodology was developed using concepts from Computer Science, Software Engineering and Information Systems and has been taught to undergraduate and MBA students and in Executive training seminars. In this paper, we describe the…
To design Bayesian studies, criteria for the operating characteristics of posterior analyses - such as power and the type I error rate - are often assessed by estimating sampling distributions of posterior probabilities via simulation. In…
Scoring models support decision-making in financial institutions. Their estimation and evaluation are based on the data of previously accepted applicants with known repayment behavior. This creates sampling bias: the available labeled data…
The development of a new diagnostic test ideally follows a sequence of stages which, amongst other aims, evaluate technical performance. This includes an analytical validity study, a diagnostic accuracy study and an interventional clinical…
This paper presents a Bayesian framework for assessing the adequacy of a model without the necessity of explicitly enumerating a specific alternate model. A test statistic is developed for tracking the performance of the model across…
Human error research on overconfidence supports the benefits of early visibility of defects and disciplined development. If risk to the enterprise is to be reduced, individuals need to become aware of the reality of the quality of their…
Spreadsheet engineering adapts the lessons of software engineering to spreadsheets, providing eight principles as a framework for organizing spreadsheet programming recommendations. Spreadsheets raise issues inadequately addressed by…
This article presents a new spectral analysis approach for dispersion error and a methodology to numerically evaluate it. In practice, this new analysis allows the numerical study of dispersion errors on all types of mesh and for multiple…
Spreadsheet technology is a cornerstone of IT systems in most organisations. It is often the glue that binds more structured transaction-based systems together. Financial operations are a case in point where spreadsheets fill the gaps left…
We wish to contribute to the discussion of "Comparing Consensus Monte Carlo Strategies for Distributed Bayesian Computation" by offering our views on the current best methods for Bayesian computation, both at big-data scale and with smaller…