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Recent likelihood theory produces $p$-values that have remarkable accuracy and wide applicability. The calculations use familiar tools such as maximum likelihood values (MLEs), observed information and parameter rescaling. The usual…
Statistical inference for discretely observed jump-diffusion processes is a complex problem which motivates new methodological challenges. Thus existing approaches invariably resort to time-discretisations which inevitably lead to…
We use the martingale-theoretic approach of game-theoretic probability to incorporate imprecision into the study of randomness. In particular, we define several notions of randomness associated with interval, rather than precise,…
Statistical solutions, which are time-parameterized probability measures on spaces of square-integrable functions, have been established as a suitable framework for global solutions of incompressible Navier-Stokes equations (NSE). We…
When prior information is lacking, the go-to strategy for probabilistic inference is to combine a "default prior" and the likelihood via Bayes's theorem. Objective Bayes, (generalized) fiducial inference, etc. fall under this umbrella. This…
We propose skewed stable random projections for approximating the pth frequency moments of dynamic data streams (0<p<=2), which has been frequently studied in theoretical computer science and database communities. Our method significantly…
We develop a bit-reversible implementation of Milne's Fourth-order Predictor algorithm so as to generate precisely time-reversible simulations of irreversible processes. We apply our algorithm to the collision of two zero-temperature…
We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for the simulation of rare events when the underlying dynamics is given by a diffusion. The scheme is based on a Gibbs variational principle that is used to determine the optimal (i.e.…
We study rare event simulations of semimartingale reflecting Brownian motions (SRBMs) in an orthant. The rare event of interest is that a $d$-dimensional positive recurrent SRBM enters the set $B_n = \{z\in\mathbb{R}^d: \sum_{k=1}^d z_k =…
Process mining is a scientific discipline that analyzes event data, often collected in databases called event logs. Recently, uncertain event logs have become of interest, which contain non-deterministic and stochastic event attributes that…
In this work we investigate an inverse problem of recovering a time-dependent potential in a semilinear subdiffusion model from an integral measurement of the solution over the domain. The model involves the Djrbashian--Caputo fractional…
We consider the exact path sampling of the squared Bessel process and some other continuous-time Markov processes, such as the CIR model, constant elasticity of variance diffusion model, and hypergeometric diffusions, which can all be…
Given a stream of Bernoulli random variables, consider the problem of estimating the mean of the random variable within a specified relative error with a specified probability of failure. Until now, the Gamma Bernoulli Approximation Scheme…
Recovering high-dimensional signals from corrupted measurements is a central challenge in inverse problems. Recent advances in generative diffusion models have shown remarkable empirical success in providing strong data-driven priors, but…
We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete--time state--space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the…
We develop diffusion models for time-varying correlation using stochastic processes defined on the unit circle. Specifically, we study Brownian motion on the circle and the von Mises diffusion, and propose their use as continuous-time…
A new method to simulate probability distributions in regions where the events are VERY unlikely (e.g. p ~ 10^{-40}) is presented. The basic idea is to represent the underlying probability space by the phase space of a physical system. The…
One of the crucial tasks in many inference problems is the extraction of sparse information out of a given number of high-dimensional measurements. In machine learning, this is frequently achieved using, as a penality term, the $L_p$ norm…
We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian parameter inference in non-linear state-space models with intractable likelihoods. Sequential Monte Carlo with approximate Bayesian computations (SMC-ABC) is one approach to approximate the…
Denoising diffusion models have become ubiquitous for generative modeling. The core idea is to transport the data distribution to a Gaussian by using a diffusion. Approximate samples from the data distribution are then obtained by…