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Many complex systems exhibit extreme events far more often than expected for a normal distribution. This work examines how self-similar bursts of activity across several orders of magnitude can emerge from first principles in systems that…
This article examines the structure and spatial patterns of violent political organizations in the Sahel-Sahara, a region characterized by growing political instability over the last 20 years. Drawing on a public collection of disaggregated…
We investigate the temporal patterns of human communication and its influence on the spreading of information in social networks. The analysis of mobile phone calls of 20 million people in one country shows that human communication is…
Disagreement and conflict are a fact of social life and considerably affect our well-being and productivity. Such negative interactions are rarely explicitly declared and recorded and this makes them hard for scientists to study. We…
The unreduced, universally nonperturbative analysis of arbitrary many-body interaction process reveals the irreducible, purely dynamic source of randomness. It leads to the universal definition of real system complexity (physics/9806002),…
With a steadily growing human population and rapid advancements in technology, the global human network is increasing in size and connection density. This growth exacerbates networked global threats and can lead to unexpected consequences…
Burstiness, the tendency of interaction events to be heterogeneously distributed in time, is critical to information diffusion in physical and social systems. However, an analytical framework capturing the effect of burstiness on generic…
I study a recently proposed statistical model of earthquake dynamics that incorporates aging as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to generate earthquake sequences that quantitatively reproduce the spatial and temporal clustering…
Studying event time series is a powerful approach for analyzing the dynamics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of science. In this paper, we describe the method of event coincidence analysis to provide a framework for quantifying…
Coordinated human behaviour takes place within a diverse range of social organisational structures, which can be thought of as power structures with "managers" who influence "subordinates". A change in policy in one part of the organisation…
We study size and growth distributions of products and business firms in the context of a given industry. Firm size growth is analyzed in terms of two basic mechanisms, i.e. the increase of the number of new elementary business units and…
Temporal social networks of human interactions are preponderant in understanding the fundamental patterns of human behavior. In these networks, interactions occur locally between individuals (i.e., nodes) who connect with each other at…
Empirical temporal networks display strong heterogeneities in their dynamics, which profoundly affect processes taking place on these networks, such as rumor and epidemic spreading. Despite the recent wealth of data on temporal networks,…
The conflicts between armed groups often go on for years. The classical model of such conflicts accounts for the number of participants and for the technology level of the equipment of the groups. Below we extend this model in order to…
This study extends classical models of spreading epidemics to describe the phenomenon of contagious public outrage, which eventually leads to the spread of violence following a disclosure of some unpopular political decisions and/or…
Numerical simulation of seismicity has been successfully developed and used for the two last decades. Presently, the general theory of modeling and the progress in computational techniques provide wide options for simulation of seismic and…
Spatio-temporal hierarchical modeling is an extremely attractive way to model the spread of crime or terrorism data over a given region, especially when the observations are counts and must be modeled discretely. The spatio-temporal…
The affiliation with various social groups can be a critical factor when it comes to quality of life of each individual, making such groups an essential element of every society. The group dynamics, longevity and effectiveness strongly…
Increasing model size has unlocked a dazzling array of capabilities in modern language models. At the same time, even frontier models remain vulnerable to jailbreaks and prompt injections, despite concerted efforts to make them robust. As…
Protracted conflict is one of the largest human challenges that have persistently undermined economic and social progress. In recent years, there has been increased emphasis on using statistical and physical science models to better…