Related papers: Error bounds for computing the expectation by Mark…

We derive explicit upper bounds for the $\bar{d}$-distance between a chain of infinite order and its canonical $k$-steps Markov approximation. Our proof is entirely constructive and involves a "coupling from the past" argument. The new…

A key quantity of interest in Bayesian inference are expectations of functions with respect to a posterior distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a fundamental tool to consistently compute these expectations via averaging samples drawn…

This review paper, written for the second edition of the Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo, provides an introduction to the study of convergence analysis for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), aimed at researchers new to the field. We…

Let $\{Y_i\}_{i=1}^{\infty}$ be a stationary reversible Markov chain with state space $[N]$, let $(X, \| \cdot \|)$ be a real-valued Banach space and let $f_1, \ldots, f_n: [N] \rightarrow X$ be functions with mean $0$ such that $\|f_i(v)\|…

We describe Monte Carlo approximation to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants and explanatory variables. We consider both sources of randomness (due to the initial sample and to Monte Carlo…

The correspondence between the cross-entropy method and the zero-variance approximation to simulate a rare event problem in Markov chains is shown. This leads to a sufficient condition that the cross-entropy estimator is asymptotically…

When implementing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, perturbation caused by numerical errors is sometimes inevitable. This paper studies how perturbation of MCMC affects the convergence speed and Monte Carlo estimation accuracy.…

We survey a QMC approach to integral equations and develop some new applications to risk modeling. In particular, a rigorous error bound derived from Koksma-Hlawka type inequalities is achieved for certain expectations related to the…

While the Quasi-Monte Carlo method of numerical integration achieves smaller integration error than standard Monte Carlo, its use in particle physics phenomenology has been hindered by the abscence of a reliable way to estimate that error.…

Perturbation theory for Markov chains addresses the question how small differences in the transitions of Markov chains are reflected in differences between their distributions. We prove powerful and flexible bounds on the distance of the…

Error probabilities of random codes for memoryless channels are considered in this paper. In the area of communication systems, admissible error probability is very small and it is sometimes more important to discuss the relative gap…

The term ``sequential Monte Carlo methods'' or, equivalently, ``particle filters,'' refers to a general class of iterative algorithms that performs Monte Carlo approximations of a given sequence of distributions of interest (\pi_t). We…

We consider continuous-time Markov chain on a finite state space X. We assume X can be clustered into several subsets such that the intra-transition rates within these subsets are of order $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{\epsilon})$ comparing to the…

We prove a bound on the finite sample error of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) on static spaces using the $L_2$ distance between interpolating distributions and the mixing times of Markov kernels. This result is unique in that it is the first…

We investigate lower bounds on the subgeometric convergence of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo under any adaptation strategy. In particular, we prove general lower bounds in total variation and on the weak convergence rate under general…

A novel procedure is described for accelerating the convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo computations. The algorithm uses an adaptive bootstrap technique to generate candidate steps in the Markov Chain. It is efficient for symmetric,…

We present an iterative Markov chainMonte Carlo algorithm for computingreference priors and minimax risk forgeneral parametric families. Ourapproach uses MCMC techniques based onthe Blahut-Arimoto algorithm forcomputing channel capacity…

Inexact Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods rely on Markov chains that do not exactly preserve the target distribution. Examples include the unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA) and unadjusted Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (uHMC). This paper…

In this article we revisit the problem of numerical integration for monotone bounded functions, with a focus on the class of nonsequential Monte Carlo methods. We first provide new a lower bound on the maximal $L^p$ error of nonsequential…

We study the limit behaviour of upper and lower bounds on expected time averages in imprecise Markov chains; a generalised type of Markov chain where the local dynamics, traditionally characterised by transition probabilities, are now…