Related papers: Error bounds for computing the expectation by Mark…
Markov chains can be used to generate samples whose distribution approximates a given target distribution. The quality of the samples of such Markov chains can be measured by the discrepancy between the empirical distribution of the samples…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are modeled as driven by true random numbers. We consider variance bounding Markov chains driven by a deterministic sequence of numbers. The star-discrepancy provides a measure of efficiency of…
We introduce a new class of Monte Carlo methods, which we call exact estimation algorithms. Such algorithms provide unbiased estimators for equilibrium expectations associated with real- valued functionals defined on a Markov chain. We…
This paper addresses the key challenge of estimating the asymptotic covariance associated with the Markov chain central limit theorem, which is essential for visualizing and terminating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. We focus…
Current reporting of results based on Markov chain Monte Carlo computations could be improved. In particular, a measure of the accuracy of the resulting estimates is rarely reported. Thus we have little ability to objectively assess the…
This document presents methods to remove the initialization or burn-in bias from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimates, with consequences on parallel computing, convergence diagnostics and performance assessment. The document is written…
This report considers the problem of computing the Cramer-Rao bound for the parameters of a Markov random field. Computation of the exact bound is not feasible for most fields of interest because their likelihoods are intractable and have…
We address the problem of upper bounding the mean square error of MCMC estimators. Our analysis is nonasymptotic. We first establish a general result valid for essentially all ergodic Markov chains encountered in Bayesian computation and a…
The Monte Carlo within Metropolis (MCwM) algorithm, interpreted as a perturbed Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm, provides an approach for approximate sampling when the target distribution is intractable. Assuming the unperturbed Markov…
An a posteriori estimate for the error of a standard Krylov approximation to the matrix exponential is derived. The estimate is based on the defect (residual) of the Krylov approximation and is proven to constitute a rigorous upper bound on…
Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…
Variational inference has become an increasingly attractive fast alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximate Bayesian inference. However, a major obstacle to the widespread use of variational methods is the lack of…
Consider testing multiple hypotheses in the setting where the p-values of all hypotheses are unknown and thus have to be approximated using Monte Carlo simulations. One class of algorithms published in the literature for this scenario…
We give a number of results on approximations of Markov kernels in total variation and Wasserstein norms weighted by a Lyapunov function. The results are applied to examples from Bayesian statistics where approximations to transition…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is the engine of modern Bayesian statistics, being used to approximate the posterior and derived quantities of interest. Despite this, the issue of how the output from a Markov chain is post-processed and…
Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo methods present a convenient approach for approximating the expected value of a random variable. Algorithms exist to adaptively sample the random variable until a user defined absolute error tolerance is…
An important step in the Markov reward approach to error bounds on stationary performance measures of Markov chains is to bound the bias terms. Affine functions have been successfully used for these bounds for various models, but there are…
Single-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo simulates realizations from a Markov chain to estimate expectations with the empirical average. The single-chain simulation is generally of considerable length and restricts many advantages of modern…
We consider the efficient use of an approximation within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), with subsequent importance sampling (IS) correction of the Markov chain inexact output, leading to asymptotically exact inference. We detail…
The aim of this note is to investigate the concentration properties of unbounded functions of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. We derive concentration properties of centered functions with respect to the square of the Lyapunov's…