Related papers: Multiscale local change point detection with appli…

The problem of (point) forecasting $ \textit{univariate} $ time series is considered. Most approaches, ranging from traditional statistical methods to recent learning-based techniques with neural networks, directly operate on raw time…

We introduce a class of randomly time-changed fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models and, using spectral theory and singular perturbation techniques, we derive an approximation for the prices of European options in this setting.…

A robust adaptive model predictive control (MPC) algorithm is presented for linear, time invariant systems with unknown dynamics and subject to bounded measurement noise. The system is characterized by an impulse response model, which is…

This paper is concerned with the detection of multiple change-points in the joint distribution of independent categorical variables. The procedures introduced rely on model selection and are based on a penalized least-squares criterion.…

This paper proposes a flexible framework for inferring large-scale time-varying and time-lagged correlation networks from multivariate or high-dimensional non-stationary time series with piecewise smooth trends. Built on a novel and unified…

We study a new measure of codependency in the second moment of a continuous-time multivariate asset price process, which we name the realized copula of volatility. The statistic is based on local volatility estimates constructed from…

We consider the problem of locating a jump discontinuity (change-point) in a smooth parametric regression model with a bounded covariate. It is assumed that one can sample the covariate at different values and measure the corresponding…

We study adaptive pooling under predictive heterogeneity in high-dimensional multivariate time series forecasting, where global models improve statistical efficiency but may fail to capture heterogeneous predictive structure, while naive…

In this paper, we consider a high-dimensional quantile regression model where the sparsity structure may differ between two sub-populations. We develop $\ell_1$-penalized estimators of both regression coefficients and the threshold…

Economic and financial models -- such as vector autoregressions, local projections, and multivariate volatility models -- feature complex dynamic interactions and spillovers across many time series. These models can be integrated into a…

Nonparametric regression models with locally stationary covariates have received increasing interest in recent years. As a nice relief of "curse of dimensionality" induced by large dimension of covariates, additive regression model is…

This paper presents a new method for spatially adaptive local (constant) likelihood estimation which applies to a broad class of nonparametric models, including the Gaussian, Poisson and binary response models. The main idea of the method…

This paper proposes a moving sum methodology for detecting multiple change points in high-dimensional time series under a factor model, where changes are attributed to those in loadings as well as emergence or disappearance of factors. We…

We study the problem of detecting and localizing multiple changes in the mean parameter of a Banach space-valued time series. The goal is to construct a collection of narrow confidence intervals, each containing at least one (or exactly…

We develop a novel asymptotic theory for local polynomial extremum estimators of time-varying parameters in a broad class of nonlinear time series models. We show the proposed estimators are consistent and follow normal distributions in…

We propose a new estimator of high-dimensional spot volatility matrices satisfying a low-rank plus sparse structure from noisy and asynchronous high-frequency data collected for an ultra-large number of assets. The noise processes are…

We study the local volatility function in the Foreign Exchange market where both domestic and foreign interest rates are stochastic. This model is suitable to price long-dated FX derivatives. We derive the local volatility function and…

Adaptivity and local mesh refinement are crucial for the efficient numerical simulation of wave phenomena in complex geometry. Local mesh refinement, however, can impose a tiny time-step across the entire computational domain when using…

Autoregressive models capture stochastic processes in which past realizations determine the generative distribution of new data; they arise naturally in a variety of industrial, biomedical, and financial settings. A key challenge when…

We develop a versatile framework for statistical learning in non-stationary environments. In each time period, our approach applies a stability principle to select a look-back window that maximizes the utilization of historical data while…