Related papers: Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Markov Chains
Markov chain analysis is a key technique in formal verification. A practical obstacle is that all probabilities in Markov models need to be known. However, system quantities such as failure rates or packet loss ratios, etc. are often not --…
Continuous-time Markov processes over finite state-spaces are widely used to model dynamical processes in many fields of natural and social science. Here, we introduce an maximum likelihood estimator for constructing such models from data…
In this paper we propose an efficient variance reduction approach for additive functionals of Markov chains relying on a novel discrete time martingale representation. Our approach is fully non-asymptotic and does not require the knowledge…
Recent advances in stochastic gradient variational inference have made it possible to perform variational Bayesian inference with posterior approximations containing auxiliary random variables. This enables us to explore a new synthesis of…
The limiting probability distribution is one of the key characteristics of a Markov chain since it shows its long-term behavior. In this paper, for a higher order Markov chain, we establish some properties related to its exact limiting…
The basic question in perturbation analysis of Markov chains is: how do small changes in the transition kernels of Markov chains translate to chains in their stationary distributions? Many papers on the subject have shown, roughly, that the…
Random Linear Network Coding (RLNC) has been proved to offer an efficient communication scheme, leveraging an interesting robustness against packet losses. However, it suffers from a high computational complexity and some novel approaches,…
Discussion of ``One-step sparse estimates in nonconcave penalized likelihood models'' [arXiv:0808.1012]
Discussion of ``One-step sparse estimates in nonconcave penalized likelihood models'' [arXiv:0808.1012]
In this paper, we study the problem of estimating a Markov chain $X$(signal) from its noisy partial information $Y$, when the transition probability kernel depends on some unknown parameters. Our goal is to compute the conditional…
Bayesian analysis for Markov jump processes is a non-trivial and challenging problem. Although exact inference is theoretically possible, it is computationally demanding thus its applicability is limited to a small class of problems. In…
We consider a class of small-sample distribution estimators over noisy channels. Our estimators are designed for repetition channels, and rely on properties of the runs of the observed sequences. These runs are modeled via a special type of…
Nonparametric identification and maximum likelihood estimation for finite-state hidden Markov models are investigated. We obtain identification of the parameters as well as the order of the Markov chain if the transition probability…
Empirical economic research frequently applies maximum likelihood estimation in cases where the likelihood function is analytically intractable. Most of the theoretical literature focuses on maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) estimators,…
An important problem in applied dynamical systems is to compute the external forcing that provokes the largest response of a desired observable quantity. For this, we investigate the perturbation theory of Markov matrices in connection with…
In this paper, we study the following model of hidden Markov chain: $Y_i=X_i+\epsilon_i$, $i=1,...,n+1$ with $(X_i)$ a real-valued stationary Markov chain and $(\epsilon_i)_{1\leq i\leq n+1}$ a noise having a known distribution and…
The correspondence between the cross-entropy method and the zero-variance approximation to simulate a rare event problem in Markov chains is shown. This leads to a sufficient condition that the cross-entropy estimator is asymptotically…
Statistical inference using pairwise comparison data is an effective approach to analyzing large-scale sparse networks. In this paper, we propose a general framework to model the mutual interactions in a network, which enjoys ample…
In this paper we develop a linear expectile hidden Markov model for the analysis of cryptocurrency time series in a risk management framework. The methodology proposed allows to focus on extreme returns and describe their temporal evolution…
This paper deals with a parametrized family of partially observed bivariate Markov chains. We establish that, under very mild assumptions, the limit of the normalized log-likelihood function is maximized when the parameters belong to the…