Related papers: Epidemics with general generation interval distrib…
We present a modelling framework for the spreading of epidemics on temporal networks from which both the individual-based and pair-based models can be recovered. The proposed temporal pair-based model that is systematically derived from…
Age at infection is often an important factor in epidemic dynamics. In this paper a disease transmission model of SIS type with age dependent infection on a heterogeneous network is discussed. The model allows the infectious rate and the…
Obtaining accurate forecasts for the evolution of epidemic outbreaks from deterministic compartmental models represents a major theoretical challenge. Recently, it has been shown that these models typically exhibit trajectories' degeneracy,…
This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…
Super-spreading events for infectious diseases occur when some infected individuals infect more than the average number of secondary cases. Several super-spreading individuals have been identified for the 2003 outbreak of severe acute…
The interplay between disease spreading and personal risk perception is of key importance for modelling the spread of infectious diseases. We propose a planar system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to describe the co-evolution of…
In this paper, we are concerned with stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed epidemics on complete graphs with vertex-dependent transition rates. Large and moderate deviations of empirical density fields of our models are given.…
This paper is concerned with stochastic SIR and SEIR epidemic models on random networks in which individuals may rewire away from infected neighbors at some rate $\omega$ (and reconnect to non-infectious individuals with probability…
Motile organisms can form stable agglomerates such as cities or colonies. In the outbreak of a highly contagious disease, the control of large-scale epidemic spread depends on factors like the number and size of agglomerates, travel rate…
In this work, the spread of a contagious disease on a society where the individuals may take precautions is modeled. The primary assumption is that the infected individuals transmit the infection to the susceptible members of the community…
We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is comprised of a system of ordinary differential equations…
We develop a framework for non-Markovian, well-mixed SIR and SIS models beyond mean field, utilizing the continuous-time random walk formalism. Using a gamma distribution for the infection and recovery inter-event times as a test case, we…
Models for resident infectious diseases, like the SIRS model, may settle into an endemic state with constant numbers of susceptible ($S$), infected ($I$) and recovered ($R$) individuals, where recovered individuals attain a temporary…
Fitting Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models to incidence data is problematic when not all infected individuals are reported. Assuming an underlying SIR model with general but known distribution for the time to recovery, this paper…
Recent work from public health experts suggests that incorporating human behavior is crucial in faithfully modeling an epidemic. We present a reaction-diffusion partial differential equation SIR-type population model for an epidemic…
To better predict the dynamics of epidemics such as COVID-19, it is important not only to investigate the network of local and long-range contagious contacts but also to understand the temporal dynamics of infectiousness and detectable…
Undulation of infection levels, usually called waves, are not well understood. In this paper we propose a mathematical model that exhibits undulation and decay towards a stable state. The model is a re-interpretation of the original…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
In this work, we study the evolution of the susceptible individuals during the spread of an epidemic modeled by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) process spreading on the top of complex networks. Using an edge-based compartmental…
Containment of epidemic outbreaks entails great societal and economic costs. Cost-effective containment strategies rely on efficiently identifying infected individuals, making the best possible use of the available testing resources.…