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We consider a discrete-time version of a Hawkes process defined as a Poisson auto-regressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. We allow these parameters to take on negative values, modelling inhibition. More…
Barrier crossing is a widespread phenomenon across natural and engineering systems. While an abundant cross-disciplinary literature on the topic has emerged over the years, the stochastic underpinnings of the process are yet to be linked…
We prove that Poisson measures are invariant under (random) intensity preserving transformations whose finite difference gradient satisfies a cyclic vanishing condition. The proof relies on moment identities of independent interest for…
An effective characterization of chaotic conservative Hamiltonian systems in terms of the curvature associated with a Riemannian metric tensor derived from the structure of the Hamiltonian has been extended to a wide class of potential…
We prove existence and uniqueness of mild and generalized solutions for a class of stochastic semilinear evolution equations driven by additive Wiener and Poisson noise. The non-linear drift term is supposed to be the evaluation operator…
We prove the necessary and sufficient condition for the removability of the fundamental singularity, and equivalently for the unique solvability of the singular Dirichlet problem for the heat equation. In the measure-theoretical context,…
In this work, we study a phase transition model in atmospheric dynamics, inspired by the works [6,14,15], which analyze the primitive equations governing the evolution of velocity, temperature, and specific humidity. The main difficulty…
Stress testing, and in particular, reverse stress testing, is a prominent exercise in risk management practice. Reverse stress testing, in contrast to (forward) stress testing, aims to find an alternative but plausible model such that under…
The purpose of this work is to build a framework that allows for an in-depth study of various generalisations to inhomogeneous space of models of Borodin-Ferrari, Dieker-Warren, Nordenstam, Warren-Windridge of interacting particles in…
We develop nonparametric Bayesian modelling approaches for Poisson processes, using weighted combinations of structured beta densities to represent the point process intensity function. For a regular spatial domain, such as the unit square,…
Some aspects of the relationship between conservativeness of a dynamical system (namely the preservation of a finite measure) and the existence of a Poisson structure for that system are analyzed. From the local point of view, due to the…
Stochastic modelling of fatigue (and other material's deterioration), as well as of cumulative damage in risk theory, are often based on compound sums of independent random variables, where the number of addends is represented by an…
This paper proves existence of the long bond, long forward measure and long-term factorization of the stochastic discount factor (SDF) of Alvarez and Jermann (2005) and Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) in Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) models in the…
We introduce new times in the monodromy preserving equations. While the usual times related to the moduli of complex structures of Riemann curves such as coordinates of marked points, we consider the moduli of generalized complex structures…
Overnight rates, such as the SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) in the US, are central to the current reform of interest rate benchmarks. A striking feature of overnight rates is the presence of jumps and spikes occurring at…
In the paper, a class of second-order McKean-Vlasov stochastic evolution equation driven by Poisson jumps with non-Lipschitz conditions is considered. The existence and uniqueness of the mild solution is established by means of the…
We consider radial Loewner evolution driven by unimodular L\'evy processes. We rescale the hulls of the evolution by capacity, and prove that the weak limit of the rescaled hulls exists. We then study a random growth model obtained by…
Changing time of simple continuous-time Markov counting processes by independent unit-rate Poisson processes results in Markov counting processes for which we provide closed-form transition rates via composition of trajectories and with…
We examine the question of existence and uniqueness of evolution systems of measures for non-autonomous Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-type processes with jumps. In particular, we give examples where we explicitly compute the densities of such families…
In this paper we show how to approximate a Heath-Jarrow-Morton dynamics for the forward prices in commodity markets with arbitrage-free models which have a finite dimensional state space. Moreover, we recover a closed form representation of…