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We study the distribution of maxima (Extreme Value Statistics) for sequences of observables computed along orbits generated by random transformations. The underlying, deterministic, dynamical system can be regular or chaotic. In the former…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Davide Faranda , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Valerio Lucarini , Giorgio Turchetti , Sandro Vaienti

Extreme value theory has constructed asymptotic properties of the sample maximum. This study concerns probability distribution estimation of the sample maximum. The traditional approach is parametric fitting to the limiting distribution --…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-19 Taku Moriyama

We consider the extreme value statistics of correlated random variables that arise from a Langevin equation. Recently, it was shown that the extreme values of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process follow a different distribution than those…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-08-17 Lior Zarfaty , Eli Barkai , David A. Kessler

Being able to predict the occurrence of extreme returns is important in financial risk management. Using the distribution of recurrence intervals---the waiting time between consecutive extremes---we show that these extreme returns are…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-02-27 Zhi-Qiang Jiang , Gang-Jin Wang , Askery Canabarro , Boris Podobnik , Chi Xie , H. Eugene Stanley , Wei-Xing Zhou

We investigate extreme value theory of a class of random sequences defined by the all-time suprema of aggregated self-similar Gaussian processes with trend. This study is motivated by its potential applications in various areas and its…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-09 Lanpeng Ji , Xiaofan Peng

It has been shown that sufficiently well mixing dynamical systems with positive entropy have extreme value laws which in the limit converge to one of the three standard distributions known for i.i.d. processes, namely Gumbel, Fr\'echet and…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-05 Nicolai Haydn , Michal Kupsa

Extreme value (EV) statistics of correlated systems are widely investigated in many fields, spanning the spectrum from weather forecasting to earthquake prediction. Does the unavoidable discrete sampling of a continuous correlated…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-08-29 Lior Zarfaty , Eli Barkai , David A. Kessler

Two old conjectures from problem sections, one of which from SIAM Review, concern the question of finding distributions that maximize P(Sn <= t), where Sn is the sum of i.i.d. random variables X1, ..., Xn on the interval [0,1], satisfying…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-08-13 Ludolf E. Meester

Multivariate extreme value statistical analysis is concerned with observations on several variables which are thought to possess some degree of tail-dependence. In areas such as the modeling of financial and insurance risks, or as the…

Applications · Statistics 2014-12-31 Alexis Bienvenüe , Christian Y. Robert

The extremal Fourier intensities are studied for stationary Edwards-Wilkinson-type, Gaussian, interfaces with power-law dispersion. We calculate the probability distribution of the maximal intensity and find that, generically, it does not…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-05-29 G. Gyorgyi , P. C. W. Holdsworth , B. Portelli , Z. Racz

We present novel bounds for estimating discrete probability distributions under the $\ell_\infty$ norm. These are nearly optimal in various precise senses, including a kind of instance-optimality. Our data-dependent convergence guarantees…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-14 Aryeh Kontorovich , Amichai Painsky

The classical multivariate extreme-value theory concerns the modeling of extremes in a multivariate random sample, suggesting the use of max-stable distributions. In this work, the classical theory is extended to the case where aggregated…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-12 Enkelejd Hashorva , Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

The statistical distribution of the largest value drawn from a sample of a given size has only three possible shapes: it is either a Weibull, a Fr\'echet or a Gumbel extreme value distributions. I describe in this short review how to relate…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-09-22 Alex Hansen

We prove limit theorems of an entirely new type for certain long memory regularly varying stationary infinitely divisible random processes. These theorems involve multiple phase transitions governed by how long the memory is. Apart from one…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-23 Gennady Samorodnitsky , Yizao Wang

The recurrence times between extreme events have been the central point of statistical analyses in many different areas of science. Simultaneously, the Poincar\'e recurrence time has been extensively used to characterize nonlinear dynamical…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Eduardo G. Altmann , Holger Kantz

Let $\mathbf{X}(n) \in \mathbb{R}^d$ be a sequence of random vectors, where $n\in\mathbb{N}$ and $d = d(n)$. Under certain weakly dependence conditions, we prove that the distribution of the maximal component of $\mathbf{X}$ and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-22 Mikhail Isaev , Igor Rodionov , Rui-Ray Zhang , Maksim Zhukovskii

We consider the Gumbel or extreme value statistics describing the distribution function p_G(x_max) of the maximum values of a random field x within patches of fixed size. We present, for smooth Gaussian random fields in two and three…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-27 S. Colombi , O. Davis , J. Devriendt , S. Prunet , J. Silk

We consider the extreme value theory of a hyperbolic toral automorphism $T: \mathbb{T}^2 \to \mathbb{T}^2$ showing that if a H\"older observation $\phi$ which is a function of a Euclidean-type distance to a non-periodic point $\zeta$ is…

We introduce the extremal range, a local statistic for studying the spatial extent of extreme events in random fields on $\mathbb{R}^d$. Conditioned on exceedance of a high threshold at a location $s$, the extremal range at $s$ is the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-06 Ryan Cotsakis , Elena Di Bernardino , Thomas Opitz

We study the limit distribution of the largest fitness for two models of weakly correlated and identically distributed random fitnesses. The correlated fitness is given by a linear combination of a fixed number of independent random…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-19 Kavita Jain