Related papers: A Consistent Model of `Explosive' Financial Bubble…

We introduce a simple generalization of rational bubble models which removes the fundamental problem discovered by [Lux and Sornette, 1999] that the distribution of returns is a power law with exponent less than 1, in contradiction with…

Tirole (1985) studied an overlapping generations model with capital accumulation and showed that the emergence of asset bubbles solves the capital over-accumulation problem. His Proposition 1(c) claims that if the dividend growth rate is…

Financial markets across all asset classes are known to exhibit trends. These trends have been exploited by traders for decades. Here, we empirically measure when trends revert, based on 30 years of daily futures prices for equity indices,…

Rational pure bubble models feature multiple (and often a continuum of) equilibria, which makes model predictions and policy analyses non-robust. We show that when the interest rate in the fundamental equilibrium is below the economic…

We argue that the word ``critical'' in the title is not purely literary. Based on our and other previous work on nonlinear complex dynamical systems, we summarize present evidence, on the Oct. 1929, Oct. 1987, Oct. 1987 Hong-Kong, Aug. 1998…

Applicability of the concept of financial log-periodicity is discussed and encouragingly verified for various phases of the world stock markets development in the period 2000-2010. In particular, a speculative forecasting scenario designed…

A simple quantum model explains the Levy-unstable distributions for individual stock returns observed by ref.[1]. The probability density function of the returns is written as the squared modulus of an amplitude. For short time intervals…

Stylized facts of empirical assets log-returns $Z$ include the existence of (semi) heavy tailed distributions $f_Z(z)$ and a non-linear spectrum of Hurst exponents $\tau(\beta)$. Empirical data considered are daily prices of 10 large…

We show that power-law analyses of financial commentaries from newspaper web-sites can be used to identify stock market bubbles, supplementing traditional volatility analyses. Using a four-year corpus of 17,713 online, finance-related…

In this paper we investigate quantitatively statistical properties of ensemble of {\it land prices} in Japan in the period from 1981 to 2002, corresponding to the period of bubbles and crashes. We find that the tail of the distributions of…

Volatilities, in high-dimensional panels of economic time series with a dynamic factor structure on the levels or returns, typically also admit a dynamic factor decomposition. We consider a two-stage dynamic factor model method recovering…

House price increases have been steady over much of the last 40 years, but there have been occasional declines, most notably in the recent housing bust that started around 2007, on the heels of the preceding housing bubble. We introduce a…

We consider a mean-reverting stochastic volatility model which satisfies some relevant stylized facts of financial markets. We introduce an algorithm for the detection of peaks in the volatility profile, that we apply to the time series of…

We propose a non linear Langevin equation as a model for stock market fluctuations and crashes. This equation is based on an identification of the different processes influencing the demand and supply, and their mathematical transcription.…

This paper estimates models of high frequency index futures returns using `around the clock' 5-minute returns that incorporate the following key features: multiple persistent stochastic volatility factors, jumps in prices and volatilities,…

In this paper, three approaches to calculate the self-similarity exponent of a time series are compared in order to determine which one performs best to identify the transition from random efficient market behavior (EM) to herding behavior…

Inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory, we aim at relating the long range correlation of the stocks return volatility to the heterogeneity of the investors' expectations about the level of the future volatility. Based on a…

Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock…

The shape and tails of partial distribution functions (PDF) for a financial signal, i.e. the S&P500 and the turbulent nature of the markets are linked through a model encompassing Tsallis nonextensive statistics and leading to evolution…

In this paper we explain the wild fluctuations of financial prices from the intrinsic amplifying feedback of speculative supply and demand. Formally, we show that an asset return follows a multiplicative random growth with exogenous input,…