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Human behavior is difficult to observe continuously at scale, yet it leaves measurable traces in everyday device use. We test whether encrypted smartphone network traffic -- a ubiquitous, always-on, passive sensing modality -- can passively…

Large-scale interacting human activities underlie all social and economic phenomena, but quantitative understanding of regular patterns and mechanism is very challenging and still rare. Self-organized online collaborative activities with…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-04-12 Yilong Zha , Tao Zhou , Changsong Zhou

Humans communicate using systems of interconnected stimuli or concepts -- from language and music to literature and science -- yet it remains unclear how, if at all, the structure of these networks supports the communication of information.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-03-27 Christopher W. Lynn , Lia Papadopoulos , Ari E. Kahn , Danielle S. Bassett

In this paper, we propose an algorithm for estimating the parameters of a time-homogeneous hidden Markov model from aggregate observations. This problem arises when only the population level counts of the number of individuals at each time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-16 Rahul Singh , Qinsheng Zhang , Yongxin Chen

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic methods in which observations are seen as realizations of a latent Markov process with discrete states that switch over time. Moving beyond standard statistical tests, HMMs offer a statistical…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-20 S. Mildiner Moraga , E. Aarts

This work investigates the problem of analyzing privacy of abrupt changes for general Markov processes. These processes may be affected by changes, or exogenous signals, that need to remain private. Privacy refers to the disclosure of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-04 Alessio Russo , Alexandre Proutiere

Methods for addressing missing data have become much more accessible to applied researchers. However, little guidance exists to help researchers systematically identify plausible missing data mechanisms in order to ensure that these methods…

Applications · Statistics 2020-07-29 Adam Davey , Ting Dai

We develop numerical and analytical approaches to calculate mutual information between complete paths of two molecular components embedded into a larger reaction network. In particular, we focus on a continuous-time Markov chain formalism,…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2022-08-09 Anne-Lena Moor , Christoph Zechner

The Markov-modulated Poisson process is utilised for count modelling in a variety of areas such as queueing, reliability, network and insurance claims analysis. In this paper, we extend the Markov-modulated Poisson process framework through…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-08-06 Benjamin Avanzi , Greg Taylor , Bernard Wong , Alan Xian

Our experience of web access slowing down is a consequence of the aggregated web access pattern of web users. This is just one example among several human oriented services which are strongly affected by human activity patterns. Recent…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-11 Alexei Vazquez

Individual-level epidemic models are increasingly being used to help understand the transmission dynamics of various infectious diseases. However, fitting such models to individual-level epidemic data is challenging, as we often only know…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-17 Dirk Douwes-Schultz , Rob Deardon , Alexandra M. Schmidt

We take an information theoretic perspective on a classical sparse-sampling noisy linear model and present an analytical expression for the mutual information, which plays central role in a variety of communications/processing problems.…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-03-25 Wasim Huleihel , Neri Merhav , Shlomo Shamai

Due to its significance in the recommendation system and community operations, user migration has garnered the interest of cyber-demography experts from numerous disciplines. However, contemporary research frequently overlooks the theory…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-08-04 FangYiKuang Ding , Yang Li

Modern mix networks improve over Tor and provide stronger privacy guarantees by robustly obfuscating metadata. As long as a message is routed through at least one honest mixnode, the privacy of the users involved is safeguarded. However,…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Vasilios Mavroudis , Tariq Elahi

We present a stochastic model of population dynamics exploiting cross-sectional data in trend analysis and forecasts for groups and cohorts of a population. While sharing the convenient features of classic Markov models, it alleviates the…

Applications · Statistics 2017-06-20 Agnieszka Werpachowska , Roman Werpachowski

The dynamics of human mobility characterizes the trajectories humans follow during their daily activities and is the foundation of processes from epidemic spreading to traffic prediction and information recommendation. In this paper, we…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-16 Zhi-Dan Zhao , Shi-Min Cai , Yang Lu

We consider a discrete latent variable model for two-way data arrays, which allows one to simultaneously produce clusters along one of the data dimensions (e.g. exchangeable observational units or features) and contiguous groups, or…

Human sociality depends upon the benefits of mutual aid and extensive communication. However mutual aid is made difficult by the problems of coordinating diverse norms and preferences, and communication is harried by substantial ambiguity…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-11-17 Paul E. Smaldino , Thomas J. Flamson , Richard McElreath

Records of social interactions provide us with new sources of data for understanding how interaction patterns affect collective dynamics. Such human activity patterns are often bursty, i.e., they consist of short periods of intense activity…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-05 Taro Takaguchi , Naoki Masuda , Petter Holme

Personalization despite being an effective solution to the problem information overload remains tricky on account of multiple dimensions to consider. Furthermore, the challenge of avoiding overdoing personalization involves estimation of a…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2017-11-09 Arjumand Younus , Muhammad Atif Qureshi
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