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Estimating the covariance of asset returns, i.e., the risk model, is a key component of financial portfolio construction and evaluation. Most risk modeling approaches produce a factor model that decomposes the asset variability into two…

The ability to make optimal decisions under uncertainty remains important across a variety of disciplines from portfolio management to power engineering. This generally implies applying some safety margins on uncertain parameters that may…

Estimating and assessing the risk of a large portfolio is an important topic in financial econometrics and risk management. The risk is often estimated by a substitution of a good estimator of the volatility matrix. However, the accuracy of…

This paper introduces novel volatility diffusion models to account for the stylized facts of high-frequency financial data such as volatility clustering, intra-day U-shape, and leverage effect. For example, the daily integrated volatility…

In this paper, we study large losses arising from defaults of a credit portfolio. We assume that the portfolio dependence structure is modelled by the Archimedean copula family as opposed to the widely used Gaussian copula. The resulting…

Rapidly evolving market conditions call for real-time risk monitoring, but its online estimation remains challenging. In this paper, we study the online estimation of one of the most widely used risk measures, Value at Risk (VaR). Its…

We consider the problem of accurately measuring the credit risk of a portfolio consisting of loss exposures such as loans, bonds and other financial assets. We are particularly interested in the probability of large portfolio losses. We…

This paper provides the first and second order derivatives of any risk measures, including VaR and ES for continuous and discrete portfolio loss random variable variables. Also, we give asymptotic results of the first and second order…

Expected Shortfall (ES) in several variants has been proposed as remedy for the defi-ciencies of Value-at-Risk (VaR) which in general is not a coherent risk measure. In fact, most definitions of ES lead to the same results when applied to…

It is a market practice to express market-implied volatilities in some parametric form. The most popular parametrizations are based on or inspired by an underlying stochastic model, like the Heston model (SVI method) or the SABR model (SABR…

In this paper, we explore the portfolio allocation problem involving an uncertain covariance matrix. We calculate the expected value of the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, marginalized over a distribution of…

Expected Shortfall (ES) is the average return on a risky asset conditional on the return being below some quantile of its distribution, namely its Value-at-Risk (VaR). The Basel III Accord, which will be implemented in the years leading up…

Under Solvency II, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) is applied, although there is broad consensus that the Expected Shortfall (ES) constitutes a more appropriate risk measure. Moving towards ES would necessitate specifying the corresponding ES…

Masked autoencoders (MAEs) are increasingly applied to electronic health records (EHR) for learning general-purpose representations that support diverse clinical tasks. However, existing approaches typically rely on uniform random masking,…

In the paper, we use and investigate copulas models to represent multivariate dependence in financial time series. We propose the algorithm of risk measure computation using copula models. Using the optimal mean-$CVaR$ portfolio we compute…

We consider an investor who seeks to maximize her expected utility derived from her terminal wealth relative to the maximum performance achieved over a fixed time horizon, and under a portfolio drawdown constraint, in a market with local…

We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations…

In this paper, we apply Value-at-Risk (VaR) approaches on the problem of yearly electric generation management. In a classical approach, the future is modelled as a markov chain and the goal is to minimize the average generation cost over…

Accurately defining, measuring and mitigating risk is a cornerstone of financial risk management, especially in the presence of financial contagion. Traditional correlation-based risk assessment methods often struggle under volatile market…

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a widely used risk metric in applications such as finance. We derive concentration bounds for CVaR estimates, considering separately the cases of light-tailed and heavy-tailed distributions. In the…