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In this paper, we develop a general theory of truncated inverse binomial sampling. In this theory, the fixed-size sampling and inverse binomial sampling are accommodated as special cases. In particular, the classical Chernoff-Hoeffding…
It is a common contention that it is an ``impossible mission'' to exactly determine the minimum sample size for the estimation of a binomial parameter with prescribed margin of error and confidence level. In this paper, we investigate such…
This paper introduces an open-ended sequential algorithm for computing the p-value of a test using Monte Carlo simulation. It guarantees that the resampling risk, the probability of a different decision than the one based on the theoretical…
We introduce probability estimation, a broadly applicable framework to certify randomness in a finite sequence of measurement results without assuming that these results are independent and identically distributed. Probability estimation…
Often it is not easy to choose between estimators, based on the estimated MSE and bias using simulation studies. Normality in small samples and a variance of the estimator, which is correct and easy to calculate using a single sample, give…
We analyse the asymptotic behaviour of the probability of observing the expected number of successes at each stage of a sequence of nested Bernoulli trials. Our motivation is the attempt to give a genuinely frequentist interpretation to the…
Estimating the parameter of a Bernoulli process arises in many applications, including photon-efficient active imaging where each illumination period is regarded as a single Bernoulli trial. Motivated by acquisition efficiency when multiple…
In this paper, we develop a computational approach for estimating the mean value of a quantity in the presence of uncertainty. We demonstrate that, under some mild assumptions, the upper and lower bounds of the mean value are efficiently…
In this work, we revisit the problem of active sequential prediction-powered mean estimation, where at each round one must decide the query probability of the ground-truth label upon observing the covariates of a sample. Furthermore, if the…
Suppose that we are given an infinite binary sequence which is random for a Bernoulli measure of parameter $p$. By the law of large numbers, the frequency of zeros in the sequence tends to~$p$, and thus we can get better and better…
The problem of estimating the probability p=P(g(X<0) is considered when X represents a multivariate stochastic input of a monotone function g. First, a heuristic method to bound p is formally described, involving a specialized design of…
We propose a method of estimating the uncertainty of a result obtained through extrapolation to the complete basis set limit. The method is based on an ensemble of random walks which simulate all possible extrapolation outcomes that could…
Words of estimative probability (WEP) are expressions of a statement's plausibility (probably, maybe, likely, doubt, likely, unlikely, impossible...). Multiple surveys demonstrate the agreement of human evaluators when assigning numerical…
The exact expression is derived for the expected value, $< {p_i}> $, for the parameter for any bin $i$ of a histogram following a multinomial distribution derived by sorting $N$ observations into bins of $B$ classes, if $n_i$ of the…
We introduce a series of numbers which serve as a generalization of Bernoulli, Euler numbers and binomial coefficients. Their properties are applied to solve a probability problem and suggest a statistical test for independence and…
The question of optimally approximating an arbitrary probability measure in the Wasserstein distance by a discrete one with uniform weights is considered. Estimates are obtained for the optimal approximation distance, with an explicit rate…
Let $M(n, k, p)$ denote the maximum probability of the event $X_1 = X_2 = \cdots = X_n=1$ under a $k$-wise independent distribution whose marginals are Bernoulli random variables with mean $p$. A long-standing question is to calculate $M(n,…
We propose a frequentist testing procedure that maintains a defined coverage and is optimal in the sense that it gives maximal power to detect deviations from a null hypothesis when the alternative to the null hypothesis is sampled from a…
An iterative randomness extraction algorithm which generalized the Von Neumann's extraction algorithm is detailed, analyzed and implemented in standard C++. Given a sequence of independently and identically distributed biased Bernoulli…
We introduce estimation and test procedures through divergence optimization for discrete or continuous parametric models. This approach is based on a new dual representation for divergences. We treat point estimation and tests for simple…