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Computing the marginal likelihood (ML) of a model requires marginalizing out all of the parameters and latent variables, a difficult high-dimensional summation or integration problem. To make matters worse, it is often hard to measure the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-10 Roger B. Grosse , Zoubin Ghahramani , Ryan P. Adams

The aim of this Thesis is to present five new tests for random numbers, which are widely used {\em e.g.} in computer simulations in physics applications. The first two tests, the cluster test and the autocorrelation test, are based on…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2008-02-03 I. Vattulainen

Standard Monte Carlo computation is widely known to exhibit a canonical square-root convergence speed in terms of sample size. Two recent techniques, one based on control variate and one on importance sampling, both derived from an…

Computation · Statistics 2023-03-13 Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

Monte Carlo simulations of diffusion processes often introduce bias in the final result, due to time discretization. Using an auxiliary Poisson process, it is possible to run simulations which are unbiased. In this article, we propose such…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-05-09 Louis Paulot

Based on the central limit theorem, we discuss the problem of evaluation of the statistical error of Monte Carlo calculations using a time discretized diffusion process. We present a robust and practical method to determine the effective…

Computational Physics · Physics 2017-02-22 François Delyon , Bernard Bernu , Markus Holzmann

We apply extensive Monte Carlo simulations to study the probability distribution $P(m)$ of the order parameter $m$ for the simple cubic Ising model with periodic boundary condition at the transition point. Sampling is performed with the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-03-18 Jiahao Xu , Alan M. Ferrenberg , David P. Landau

The simulation of the expectation of a stochastic quantity E[Y] by Monte Carlo methods is known to be computationally expensive especially if the stochastic quantity or its approximation Y_n is expensive to simulate, e.g., the solution of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-06 Annika Lang , Andreas Petersson

Multivariate normal (MVN) probabilities arise in myriad applications, but they are analytically intractable and need to be evaluated via Monte-Carlo-based numerical integration. For the state-of-the-art minimax exponential tilting (MET)…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-28 Jian Cao , Matthias Katzfuss

We investigate the use of Antithetic Variables, Control Variates and Importance Sampling to reduce the statistical errors of option sensitivities calculated with the Likelihood Ratio Method in Monte Carlo. We show how Antithetic Variables…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2008-08-24 Luca Capriotti

Properties of the self-adjusted Monte Carlo algorithm applied to 2d Ising ferromagnet are studied numerically. The endogenous feedback form expressed in terms of the instant running averages is suggested in order to generate a biased random…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Denis Horvath , Martin Gmitra , Zoltan Kuscsik

We present a Monte Carlo method for computing the renormalized coupling constants and the critical exponents within renormalization theory. The scheme, which derives from a variational principle, overcomes critical slowing down, by means of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-12-06 Yantao Wu , Roberto Car

A two-dimensional Ising model with nearest-neighbors ferromagnetic interactions is implemented in a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) board.Extensive Monte Carlo simulations were carried out using an efficient hardware representation of…

Hardware Architecture · Computer Science 2016-02-10 Francisco Ortega-Zamorano , Marcelo A. Montemurro , Sergio A. Cannas , José M. Jerez , Leonardo Franco

We describe Monte Carlo methods for estimating lower envelopes of expectations of real random variables. We prove that the estimation bias is negative and that its absolute value shrinks with increasing sample size. We discuss fairly…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-02 Arne Decadt , Gert de Cooman , Jasper De Bock

We describe an embarrassingly parallel, anytime Monte Carlo method for likelihood-free models. The algorithm starts with the view that the stochasticity of the pseudo-samples generated by the simulator can be controlled externally by a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-12-03 Edward Meeds , Max Welling

Importance sampling has been known as a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimator for rare event simulation. Based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of Monte Carlo estimator within a parametric family, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-11 Cheng-Der Fuh , Huei-Wen Teng , Ren-Her Wang

An efficient Path Integral Monte Carlo procedure is proposed to simulate the behavior of quantum many-body dissipative systems described within the framework of the influence functional. Thermodynamic observables are obtained by Monte Carlo…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Luca Capriotti , Alessandro Cuccoli , Andrea Fubini , Valerio Tognetti , Ruggero Vaia

This paper studies the use of a machine learning-based estimator as a control variate for mitigating the variance of Monte Carlo sampling. Specifically, we seek to uncover the key factors that influence the efficiency of control variates in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-29 Jose Blanchet , Haoxuan Chen , Yiping Lu , Lexing Ying

The Monte Carlo (MC) estimates of thermal averages are usually functions of system control parameters $\lambda $, such as temperature, volume, interaction couplings, etc. Given the MC average at a set of prescribed control parameters…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2012-06-11 Sharif D. Kunikeev , Kwang S. Kim

We present results from Monte Carlo simulations of the one-dimensional Ising spin glass with power-law interactions at low temperature, using the parallel tempering Monte Carlo method. For a set of parameters where the long-range part of…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2007-05-23 H. G. Katzgraber , A. P. Young

We present a simple approach to high-accuracy calculations of critical properties for the three-dimensional Ising model, without prior knowledge of the critical temperature. The iterative method uses a modified block-spin transformation…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-09-01 D. Ron , A. Brandt , R. H. Swendsen