Related papers: Computation of confidence intervals in regression …
The standard way to estimate the parameters $\Theta_\text{SEIR}$ (e.g., the transmission rate $\beta$) of an SEIR model is to use grid search, where simulations are performed on each set of parameters, and the parameter set leading to the…
In this paper, we propose a new framework to construct confidence sets for a $d$-dimensional unknown sparse parameter $\theta$ under the normal mean model $X\sim N(\theta,\sigma^2I)$. A key feature of the proposed confidence set is its…
Especially when facing reliability data with limited information (e.g., a small number of failures), there are strong motivations for using Bayesian inference methods. These include the option to use information from physics-of-failure or…
The prediction interval has been increasingly used in meta-analyses as a useful measure for assessing the magnitude of treatment effect and between-studies heterogeneity. In calculations of the prediction interval, although the…
Regression modeling is the workhorse of statistics and there is a vast literature on estimation of the regression function. It is realized in recent years that in regression analysis the ultimate aim may be the estimation of a level set of…
Beta regression is a popular methodology when the outcome variable $y$ is on the open interval $(0,1)$. When $y$ is in the closed interval $[0,1]$, it is commonly accepted that beta regression is inapplicable. Instead, common solutions are…
A priori bound for the parameter to be estimated is incorporated into confidence intervals within frequentistic approach in a straightforward and optimal fashion, ensuring the best resolution of non-boundary values as well as robustness for…
The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of…
Factor analysis (FA) and principal component analysis (PCA) are popular statistical methods for summarizing and explaining the variability in multivariate datasets. By default, FA and PCA assume the number of components or factors to be…
We present a method of constructing statistical intervals that obtain a natural middle ground between Bayesian and frequentist statistical intervals, previously unexplored in literature: To a p% Bayesian credible interval we should assign a…
We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…
This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…
With the wide adoption of machine learning techniques, requirements have evolved beyond sheer high performance, often requiring models to be trustworthy. A common approach to increase the trustworthiness of such systems is to allow them to…
Confidence bounds are an essential tool for rigorously quantifying the uncertainty of predictions. They are a core component in many sequential learning and decision-making algorithms, with tighter confidence bounds giving rise to…
Nonparametric two-stage procedures to construct fixed-width confidence intervals are studied to quantify uncertainty. It is shown that the validity of the random central limit theorem (RCLT) accompanied by a consistent and asymptotically…
We present a new method for constructing a confidence interval for the mean of a bounded random variable from samples of the random variable. We conjecture that the confidence interval has guaranteed coverage, i.e., that it contains the…
We study the problem of constructing honest and adaptive confidence intervals for the tail coefficient in the second order Pareto model, when the second order coefficient is unknown. This problem is translated into a testing problem on the…
In Bayesian statistics, one's prior beliefs about underlying model parameters are revised with the information content of observed data from which, using Bayes' rule, a posterior belief is obtained. A non-trivial example taken from the…
Researchers now routinely use AI or other machine learning methods to estimate latent variables of economic interest, then plug-in the estimates as covariates in a regression. We show both theoretically and empirically that naively treating…
In this article, we derive an explicit formula for computing confidence interval for the mean of a bounded random variable. Moreover, we have developed multistage point estimation methods for estimating the mean value with prescribed…