Related papers: Credit risk modeling using time-changed Brownian m…
Adaptive importance sampling techniques are widely known for the Gaussian setting of Brownian driven diffusions. In this work, we want to extend them to jump processes. Our approach relies on a change of the jump intensity combined with the…
Survival analysis has become a standard approach for modelling time to default by time-varying covariates in credit risk. Unlike most existing methods that implicitly assume a stationary data-generating process, in practise, mortgage…
We derive the moments of the first passage time for Brownian motion conditioned by either the maximum value or the area swept out by the motion. These quantities are the natural counterparts to the moments of the maximum value and area of…
The study of first passage times for diffusing particles reaching target states is foundational in various practical applications, including diffusion-controlled reactions. In this work, we present a bi-scaling theory for the probability…
We model continuous-time information flows generated by a number of information sources that switch on and off at random times. By modulating a multi-dimensional L\'evy random bridge over a random point field, our framework relates the…
We compare observed corporate cumulative default probabilities to those calculated using a stochastic model based on an extension of the work of Black and Cox and find that corporations default as if via diffusive dynamics. The model, based…
We derive the first-passage-time statistics of a Brownian motion driven by an exponential time-dependent drift up to a threshold. This process corresponds to the signal integration in a simple neuronal model supplemented with an…
Replacing Black-Scholes' driving process, Brownian motion, with fractional Brownian motion allows for incorporation of a past dependency of stock prices but faces a few major downfalls, including the occurrence of arbitrage when implemented…
There is currently a focus on statistical methods which can use historical trial information to help accelerate the discovery, development and delivery of medicine. Bayesian methods can be constructed so that the borrowing is "dynamic" in…
It is a well known fact that local scale invariance plays a fundamental role in the theory of derivative pricing. Specific applications of this principle have been used quite often under the name of `change of numeraire', but in recent work…
Since diffusion processes arise in so many different fields, efficient tech-nics for the simulation of sample paths, like discretization schemes, represent crucial tools in applied probability. Such methods permit to obtain approximations…
We study the first-passage time, the distribution of the maximum, and the absorption probability of fractional Brownian motion of Hurst parameter $H$ with both a linear and a non-linear drift. The latter appears naturally when applying…
First passage phenomena arise across physics, biology, and finance when stochastic processes first reach a threshold, triggering downstream events. Examples include the irreversible exit from a domain, a biochemical reaction, a financial…
In finance, the price of a volatile asset can be modeled using fractional Brownian motion (fBm) with Hurst parameter $H>1/2.$ The Black-Scholes model for the values of returns of an asset using fBm is given as, [Y_t=Y_0…
In this paper, we develop a theory of common decomposition for two correlated Brownian motions, in which, by using change of time method, the correlated Brownian motions are represented by a triplet of processes, $(X,Y,T)$, where $X$ and…
New theorems for the moments of the first passage time of one dimensional nonlinear stochastic processes with an entrance boundary are formulated. This important class of one dimensional stochastic processes results among others from…
Financial markets provide an ideal frame for the study of crossing or first-passage time events of non-Gaussian correlated dynamics mainly because large data sets are available. Tick-by-tick data of six futures markets are herein considered…
Even in the face of deteriorating and highly volatile demand, firms often invest in, rather than discard, aging technologies. In order to study this phenomenon, we model the firm's profit stream as a Brownian motion with negative drift. At…
We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain.…
The aim of this paper is to present the new results concerning some functionals of Brownian motion with drift and present their applications in financial mathematics. We find a probabilistic representation of the Laplace transform of…