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We propose a new class of learning algorithms that combines variational approximation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Naive algorithms that use the variational approximation as proposal distribution can perform poorly…
In this paper we study the Metropolis algorithm in connection with two mean--field spin systems, the so called mean--field Ising model and the Blume--Emery--Griffiths model. In both this examples the naive choice of proposal chain gives…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a popular Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that generates proposals for a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm by simulating the dynamics of a Hamiltonian system. However, HMC is sensitive to large time…
The exchange algorithm is one of the most popular extensions of the Metropolis--Hastings algorithm to sample from doubly-intractable distributions. However, the theoretical exploration of the exchange algorithm is very limited. For example,…
To sample from a given target distribution, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling relies on constructing an ergodic Markov chain with the target distribution as its invariant measure. For any MCMC method, an important question is how to…
We investigate model risk and distributionally robust optimization (DRO) under marginal and martingale constraints. Building on our previous work, we address the previously open case of static hedging with second-period maturity vanilla…
Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to simulate from complex statistical distributions by way of a local exploration of these distributions. This local feature avoids heavy requests on understanding the nature of the target, but it…
Latent Gaussian variables have been popularised in probabilistic machine learning. In turn, gradient estimators are the machinery that facilitates gradient-based optimisation for models with latent Gaussian variables. The reparameterisation…
The validity of estimation and smoothing parameter selection for the wide class of generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) relies on the correct specification of a likelihood function. Deviations from such…
A simple criterion is presented for a practical construction of generalized moments that allow one to approach the theoretical Rao-Cramer limit for parameter estimation while avoiding the complexity of the maximum likelihood method in the…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithms which combine numerical approximation of Hamiltonian dynamics on finite intervals with stochastic refreshment and Metropolis correction are popular sampling schemes, but it is known that they may…
Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have become the most popular measures of market risk in Financial and Insurance fields. However, the estimation of both risk measures is challenging, because it requires the knowledge…
Quantum mechanics for many-body systems may be reduced to the evaluation of integrals in 3N dimensions using Monte-Carlo, providing the Quantum Monte Carlo ab initio methods. Here we limit ourselves to expectation values for trial…
In this study the common least-squares minimization approach is compared to the Bayesian updating procedure. In the content of material parameter identification the posterior parameter density function is obtained from its prior and the…
We assess the usefulness of gradient-based samplers, such as the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS), by comparison with traditional Metropolis-Hastings algorithms, in tomographic $3 \times 2$ point analyses. Specifically, we use the DES Year 1 data…
Sampling from heavy-tailed and multimodal distributions is challenging when neither the target density nor the proposal density can be evaluated, as in $\alpha$-stable L\'evy-driven fractional Langevin algorithms. While the target…
We present general, analytic methods for Cosmological likelihood analysis and solve the "many-parameters" problem in Cosmology. Maxima are found by Newton's Method, while marginalization over nuisance parameters, and parameter errors and…
Determining risk contributions of unit exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital is an important task in financial risk management. Computing risk contributions involves difficulties caused by rare-event simulations. In this study, we…
Scaling of proposals for Metropolis algorithms is an important practical problem in MCMC implementation. Criteria for scaling based on empirical acceptance rates of algorithms have been found to work consistently well across a broad range…
Estimating predictive uncertainty is crucial for many computer vision tasks, from image classification to autonomous driving systems. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an sampling method for performing Bayesian inference. On the other hand,…