Related papers: Regime Switching Volatility Calibration by the Bau…
Regime-switching models, in particular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) where the switching is driven by an unobservable Markov chain, are widely-used in financial applications, due to their tractability and good econometric properties. In this…
We develop a new method to find the number of volatility regimes in a nonstationary financial time series by applying unsupervised learning to its volatility structure. We use change point detection to partition a time series into locally…
The pricing of derivatives tied to baskets of assets demands a sophisticated framework that aligns with the available market information to capture the intricate non-linear dependency structure among the assets. We describe the dynamics of…
We explore a stochastic model that enables capturing external influences in two specific ways. The model allows for the expression of uncertainty in the parametrisation of the stochastic dynamics and incorporates patterns to account for…
In this paper we consider the simulation-based Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) models. Extending the highly efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo mixture sampler for the SV model proposed in Kim et al. (1998) and Omori…
This paper presents a study using the Bayesian approach in stochastic volatility models for modeling financial time series, using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods (HMC). We propose the use of other distributions for the errors in the…
This paper develops a Bayesian procedure for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of multivariate time series. The foundation of this work is the matrix-variate dynamic linear model, for the volatility of which we adopt a…
We present a fast and robust calibration method for stochastic volatility models that admit Fourier-analytic transform-based pricing via characteristic functions. The design is structure-preserving: we keep the original pricing transform…
Blind estimation of intersymbol interference channels based on the Baum-Welch (BW) algorithm, a specific implementation of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for training hidden Markov models, is robust and does not require labeled…
Local volatility is a versatile option pricing model due to its state dependent diffusion coefficient. Calibration is, however, non-trivial as it involves both proposing a hypothesis model of the latent function and a method for fitting it…
In the first quarter of 2006 Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) introduced, as one of the listed products, options on its implied volatility index (VIX). This created the challenge of developing a pricing framework that can…
The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is one of the mainstays of statistical modeling of discrete time series, with applications including speech recognition, computational biology, computer vision and econometrics. Estimating an HMM from its…
We introduce a modular framework that extends the signature method to handle American option pricing under evolving volatility roughness. Building on the signature-pricing framework of Bayer et al. (2025), we add three practical…
Stochastic methods offer an effective way to suppress coherent errors in quantum simulation. In particular, the randomized compilation protocol may reduce circuit depth by randomly sampling Hamiltonian terms rather than following the…
Stochastic volatility models, where the volatility is a stochastic process, can capture most of the essential stylized facts of implied volatility surfaces and give more realistic dynamics of the volatility smile/skew. However, they come…
An appropriate calibration and forecasting of volatility and market risk are some of the main challenges faced by companies that have to manage the uncertainty inherent to their investments or funding operations such as banks, pension funds…
In this paper, we study an optimal stopping problem in the presence of model uncertainty and regime switching. The max-min formulation for robust control and the dynamic programming approach are adopted to establish a general theoretical…
Techniques from deep learning play a more and more important role for the important task of calibration of financial models. The pioneering paper by Hernandez [Risk, 2017] was a catalyst for resurfacing interest in research in this area. In…
This paper proposes a simulation-based reinforcement learning algorithm for controlling systems with uncertain and varying system parameters. While simulators are useful for safely learning control policies, the reality gap remains a major…
This paper proposes a general switching dynamical system model, and a custom majorization-minimization-based algorithm EM++ for identifying its parameters. For certain families of distributions, such as Gaussian distributions, this…