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In decision-making systems, it is important to have classifiers that have calibrated uncertainties, with an optimisation objective that can be used for automated model selection and training. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide uncertainty…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a generic modelling tool for supervised learning. While they have been successfully applied on large datasets, their use in safety-critical applications is hindered by the lack of good performance guarantees. To…

We derive a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler based on following ray paths in a medium where the refractive index $n(x)$ is a function of the desired likelihood $\mathcal{L}(x)$. The sampling method propagates rays at constant speed through…

The availability of data sets with large numbers of variables is rapidly increasing. The effective application of Bayesian variable selection methods for regression with these data sets has proved difficult since available Markov chain…

Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and…

We introduce a new approximate multiresolution analysis (MRA) using a single Gaussian as the scaling function, which we call Gaussian MRA (GMRA). As an initial application, we employ this new tool to accurately and efficiently compute the…

Efficiently sampling from high-dimensional, multi-modal posteriors is a central challenge in Bayesian inference for astrophysics, especially gravitational-wave astronomy. Popular families of methods like Markov-chain Monte Carlo, nested…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have become powerful tools for Bayesian inference. However, they do not scale well to large-data problems. Divide-and-conquer strategies, which split the data into batches and, for each batch, run…

Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo technique for efficiently estimating the likelihood of rare events by biasing the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By drawing weighted samples from a learned proposal…

In Bayesian inverse problems, the posterior distribution is used to quantify uncertainty about the reconstructed solution. In practice, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms often are used to draw samples from the posterior distribution.…

Understanding systems by forward and inverse modeling is a recurrent topic of research in many domains of science and engineering. In this context, Monte Carlo methods have been widely used as powerful tools for numerical inference and…

The advantages of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) are exploited to develop parameter estimation and model selection methods for GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) style models. It provides an alternative method…

We study the generalization error of randomized learning algorithms -- focusing on stochastic gradient descent (SGD) -- using a novel combination of PAC-Bayes and algorithmic stability. Importantly, our generalization bounds hold for all…

The popularity of Adaptive MCMC has been fueled on the one hand by its success in applications, and on the other hand, by mathematically appealing and computationally straightforward optimisation criteria for the Metropolis algorithm…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used for regression and optimization tasks such as Bayesian optimization (BO) due to their expressiveness and principled uncertainty estimates. However, in settings with large datasets corrupted by…

Monte Carlo sampling methods are the standard procedure for approximating complicated integrals of multidimensional posterior distributions in Bayesian inference. In this work, we focus on the class of Layered Adaptive Importance Sampling…

Multidimensional scaling (MDS) is widely used to reconstruct a low-dimensional representation of high-dimensional data while preserving pairwise distances. However, Bayesian MDS approaches based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) face…

Generating random variates from high-dimensional distributions is often done approximately using Markov chain Monte Carlo. In certain cases, perfect simulation algorithms exist that allow one to draw exactly from the stationary…

The Reversible Jump algorithm is one of the most widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian estimation and model selection. A generalized multiple-try version of this algorithm is proposed. The algorithm is based on…

This paper presents an improved implicit sampling method for hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems. A widely used approach for sampling posterior distribution is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, the samples generated by…