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This paper studies a very general urn model stimulated by designs in clinical trials, where the number of balls of different types added to the urn at trial n depends on a random outcome directed by the composition at trials 1,2,...,n-1.…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Zhi-Dong Bai , Feifang Hu

The random self-reinforcement mechanism, characterized by the principle of ``the rich get richer'', has demonstrated significant utility across various domains. One prominent model embodying this mechanism is the random reinforcement urn…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-18 Li Yang , Jiang Hu , Jianghao Li , Zhidong Bai

Adaptive randomly reinforced urn (ARRU) is a two-color urn model where the updating process is defined by a sequence of non-negative random vectors $\{(D_{1,n}, D_{2,n});n\geq1\}$ and randomly evolving thresholds which utilize accruing…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-27 Giacomo Aletti , Andrea Ghiglietti , Anand Vidyashankar

We consider the problem of constructing optimal designs for population pharmacokinetics which use random effect models. It is common practice in the design of experiments in such studies to assume uncorrelated errors for each subject. In…

Applications · Statistics 2010-11-16 Holger Dette , Andrey Pepelyshev , Tim Holland-Letz

We develop asymptotic approximations that can be applied to sequential estimation and inference problems, adaptive randomized controlled trials, and related settings. In batched adaptive settings where the decision at one stage can affect…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-25 Keisuke Hirano , Jack R. Porter

The present paper deals with the problem of allocating patients to two competing treatments in the presence of covariates or prognostic factors in order to achieve a good trade-off among ethical concerns, inferential precision and…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-08-17 Alessandro Baldi Antognini , Maroussa Zagoraiou

The aim of this paper is to study the asymptotic behavior of strongly reinforced interacting urns with partial memory sharing. The reinforcement mechanism considered is as follows: draw at each step and for each urn a white or black ball…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-10 Mickaël Launay

In this paper, we provide some general convergence results for adaptive designs for treatment comparison, both in the absence and presence of covariates. In particular, we demonstrate the almost sure convergence of the treatment allocation…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-01 Alessandro Baldi Antognini , Maroussa Zagoraiou

Various adaptive randomization procedures (adaptive designs) have been proposed to clinical trials. This paper discusses several broad families of procedures, such as the play-the-winner rule and Markov chain model, randomized…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-30 Li-Xin Zhang

Regression adjustment is broadly applied in randomized trials under the premise that it usually improves the precision of a treatment effect estimator. However, previous work has shown that this is not always true. To further understand…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-11 Katarzyna Reluga , Ting Ye , Qingyuan Zhao

Interacting urns with exponential reinforcement were introduced and studied in Launay (2011). As its parameter $\rho$ tends to $\iy$, this reinforcement mechanism converges to the "generalized" reinforcement, in which the probability of…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-07-25 Mickaël Launay , Vlada Limic

Response-adaptive randomization has recently attracted a lot of attention in the literature. In this paper, we propose a new and simple family of response-adaptive randomization procedures that attain the Cramer--Rao lower bounds on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-25 Feifang Hu , Li-Xin Zhang , Xuming He

Consider a finite undirected graph and place an urn with balls of two colours at each vertex. At every discrete time step, for each urn, a fixed number of balls are drawn from that same urn with probability $p$, and from a randomly chosen…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-29 Yogesh Dahiya , Neeraja Sahasrabudhe

The Generalized P\'{o}lya Urn (GPU) is a popular urn model which is widely used in many disciplines. In particular, it is extensively used in treatment allocation schemes in clinical trials. In this paper, we propose a sequential…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Li-X. Zhang , Feifang Hu , Siu Hung Cheung

This paper deals with a new design methodology for stratified comparative experiments based on interacting reinforced urn systems. The key idea is to model the interaction between urns for borrowing information across strata and to use it…

Response-adaptive designs have been extensively studied and used in clinical trials. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive study of response-adaptive designs that include covariates, despite their importance in clinical experiments.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-26 Li-Xin Zhang , Feifang Hu , Siu Hung Cheung , Wai Sum Chan

In this paper, we consider a multi-drawing urn model with random addition. At each discrete time step, we draw a sample of m balls. According to the composition of the drawn colors, we return the balls together with a random number of balls…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Rafik Aguech , Nabil Lasmar , Olfa Selmi

In this paper we propose a general class of covariate-adjusted response-adaptive (CARA) designs based on a new functional urn model. We prove strong consistency concerning the functional urn proportion and the proportion of subjects…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-27 Giacomo Aletti , Andrea Ghiglietti , William F. Rosenberger

This paper traces the strong relations between experimental design and control, such as the use of optimal inputs to obtain precise parameter estimation in dynamical systems and the introduction of suitably designed perturbations in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2008-03-03 Luc Pronzato

The treatment assignment mechanism in a randomized clinical trial can be optimized for statistical efficiency within a specified class of randomization mechanisms. Optimal designs of this type have been characterized in terms of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Wei Zhang , Zhiwei Zhang , Aiyi Liu
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