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In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-18 Michael Vogt , Holger Dette

This paper is about vector autoregressive-moving average (VARMA) models with time-dependent coefficients to represent non-stationary time series. Contrarily to other papers in the univariate case, the coefficients depend on time but not on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-05 Abdelkamel Alj , Christophe Ley , Guy Mélard

If multiway cluster-robust standard errors are used routinely in applied economics, surprisingly few theoretical results justify this practice. This paper aims to fill this gap. We first prove, under nearly the same conditions as with…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-08-06 Laurent Davezies , Xavier D'Haultfoeuille , Yannick Guyonvarch

In clinical trials with recurrent events, such as repeated hospitalizations terminating with death, it is important to consider the patient events overall history for a thorough assessment of treatment effects. The occurrence of fewer…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-08 Alessandra Ragni , Torben Martinussen , Thomas Scheike

We consider a semiparametric partly linear model identified by instrumental variables. We propose an estimation method that does not smooth on the instruments and we extend the Landweber-Fridman regularization scheme to the estimation of…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-26 Jean-Pierre Florens , Elia Lapenta

The basic model for high-frequency data in finance is considered, where an efficient price process is observed under microstructure noise. It is shown that this nonparametric model is in Le Cam's sense asymptotically equivalent to a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-25 Markus Reiß

Discrete-time affine processes are widely used in finance and economics and encompass count, positive, and nonnegative-valued processes. This paper develops near-unit-root asymptotic theory for this class of models. Unlike linear AR(1)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Gael Anne , Yang Lu , Xuewen Yu , Xiaowen Zhou

One of the most commonly used methods for forming confidence intervals for statistical inference is the empirical bootstrap, which is especially expedient when the limiting distribution of the estimator is unknown. However, despite its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-24 Morgane Austern , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Many statistical estimators are defined as the fixed point of a data-dependent operator, with estimators based on minimizing a cost function being an important special case. The limiting performance of such estimators depends on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-22 Nhat Ho , Koulik Khamaru , Raaz Dwivedi , Martin J. Wainwright , Michael I. Jordan , Bin Yu

In this paper the class of ARCH$(\infty)$ models is generalized to the nonstationary class of ARCH$(\infty)$ models with time-varying coefficients. For fixed time points, a stationary approximation is given leading to the notation ``locally…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Rainer Dahlhaus , Suhasini Subba Rao

This work is intended as a contribution to a wavelet-based adaptive estimator of the memory parameter in the classical semi-parametric framework for Gaussian stationary processes. In particular we introduce and develop the choice of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-03-27 Jean-Marc Bardet , Hatem Bibi , Abdellatif Jouini

This paper proposes a nonlinear estimator for the robust reconstruction of process and sensor faults for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems. The proposed fault estimation method augments the system dynamics with an ultra-local (in time)…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-11 Farhad Ghanipoor , Carlos Murguia , Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani , Nathan van de Wouw

The first purpose of this article is to obtain a.s. asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in the autoregressive process driven by a stationary Gaussian noise. The second purpose is to show the local asymptotic normality…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-23 Marius Soltane

A tuning-free procedure is proposed to estimate the covariate-adjusted Gaussian graphical model. For each finite subgraph, this estimator is asymptotically normal and efficient. As a consequence, a confidence interval can be obtained for…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-09-24 Mengjie Chen , Zhao Ren , Hongyu Zhao , Harrison Zhou

We provide a nonparametric method for the computation of instantaneous multivariate volatility for continuous semi-martingales, which is based on Fourier analysis. The co-volatility is reconstructed as a stochastic function of time by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-14 Paul Malliavin , Maria Elvira Mancino

We consider data-adaptive wavelet estimation of a trend function in a time series model with strongly dependent Gaussian residuals. Asymptotic expressions for the optimal mean integrated squared error and corresponding optimal smoothing and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-05 Jan Beran , Yevgen Shumeyko

The paper studies asymptotic properties of estimators of multidimensional stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motions from high-frequency discrete data. Consistency and central limit properties of a class of estimators of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-07 Arnab Ganguly

This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-04 Donald W. K. Andrews , Ming Li

We propose a panel ARMA-GARCH model to capture the dynamics of large panel data with $N$ individuals over $T$ time periods. For this model, we provide a two-step estimation procedure to estimate the ARMA parameters and GARCH parameters…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Bing Su , Ke Zhu

We consider estimation procedures which are recursive in the sense that each successive estimator is obtained from the previous one by a simple adjustment. The model considered in the paper is very general as we do not impose any…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Teo Sharia