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This paper provides general expression for Bartlett and Bartlett-type correction factors for the likelihood ratio and gradient statistics to test the dispersion parameter in heteroscedastic symmetric nonlinear models. This class of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-24 Mariana C. Araújo , Audrey H. M. A. Cysneiros , Lourdes C. Montenegro

This paper introduces a framework for uncertainty quantification in regression models defined in metric spaces. Leveraging a newly defined notion of homoscedasticity, we develop a conformal prediction algorithm that offers finite-sample…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-22 Gábor Lugosi , Marcos Matabuena

In this paper, we introduce a new approach to constructing unbiased estimators when computing expectations of path functionals associated with stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Our randomization idea is closely related to…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-07-11 Chang-han Rhee , Peter W. Glynn

A procedure for asymptotic bias reduction of maximum likelihood estimates of generic estimands is developed. The estimator is realized as a plug-in estimator, where the parameter maximizes the penalized likelihood with a penalty function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-26 Masayo Y. Hirose , Shuhei Mano

This paper investigates the nonparametric estimation of a circular regression function in an errors-in-variables framework. Two settings are studied, depending on whether the covariates are circular or linear. Adaptive estimators are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-27 Tien Dat Nguyen , Thanh Mai Pham Ngoc

This paper develops a flexible method for decreasing the variance of estimators for complex experiment effect metrics (e.g. ratio metrics) while retaining asymptotic unbiasedness. This method uses the auxiliary information about the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-09 Reza Hosseini , Amir Najmi

We propose novel scale-invariant error estimators for the Monte Carlo and multilevel Monte Carlo estimation of mean and variance. For any linear transformation of the distribution of the quantity of interest, the computation cost across…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-12-09 Sharana Kumar Shivanand , Bojana Rosić

Monte Carlo estimation in plays a crucial role in stochastic reaction networks. However, reducing the statistical uncertainty of the corresponding estimators requires sampling a large number of trajectories. We propose control variates…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-19 Michael Backenköhler , Luca Bortolussi , Verena Wolf

Measurement error is a pervasive challenge across many disciplines, yet its impact on sample size determination and the accuracy and precision of estimators regarding the association between an exposure and an outcome remains understudied…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-27 Honghyok Kim

We introduce a novel covariance estimator for portfolio selection that adapts to the non-stationary or persistent heteroskedastic environments of financial time series by employing exponentially weighted averages and nonlinearly shrinking…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-23 Vincent Tan , Stefan Zohren

The role of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning has become crucial with growing use of predictive models in high-risk applications. Though a large class of methods exists for measuring deep uncertainties, in practice, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-01 Bindya Venkatesh , Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan

We consider high-dimensional generalized linear models when the covariates are contaminated by measurement error. Estimates from errors-in-variables regression models are well-known to be biased in traditional low-dimensional settings if…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-06 Michael Byrd , Monnie McGee

We study high-dimensional linear models with error-in-variables. Such models are motivated by various applications in econometrics, finance and genetics. These models are challenging because of the need to account for measurement errors to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-03-03 Alexandre Belloni , Victor Chernozhukov , Abhishek Kaul

This paper presents a detailed theoretical analysis of the three stochastic approximation proximal gradient algorithms proposed in our companion paper [49] to set regularization parameters by marginal maximum likelihood estimation. We prove…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-14 Valentin De Bortoli , Alain Durmus , Ana F. Vidal , Marcelo Pereyra

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-26 Hrushikesh Loya , Pranav Poduval , Deepak Anand , Neeraj Kumar , Amit Sethi

Small area estimators that ignore the sampling design lack design consistency when the sampling mechanism is complex and may be severely biased under informative designs. Existing procedures that account for the survey weights under…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 William Acero , Domingo Morales , Isabel Molina

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

We show that a large class of Estimation of Distribution Algorithms, including, but not limited to, Covariance Matrix Adaption, can be written as a Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and as exact EM in the limit of infinite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 David H. Brookes , Akosua Busia , Clara Fannjiang , Kevin Murphy , Jennifer Listgarten

We consider nonlinear mixed effects models including high-dimensional covariates to model individual parameters variability. The objective is to identify relevant covariates among a large set under sparsity assumption and to estimate model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-06 Antoine Caillebotte , Estelle Kuhn , Sarah Lemler

Several recently developed methods have the potential to harness machine learning in the pursuit of target quantities inspired by causal inference, including inverse weighting, doubly robust estimating equations and substitution estimators…

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