Related papers: Information geometry and entropy in a stochastic e…

Epidemic disease spreading is conventionally often modelled and analyzed by means of rate and diffusion equations, following the paradigms of well-controlled chemical reactions and diffusive dynamics in a test tube. Yet, serious worries…

We analyze four models of epidemic spreading using a stochastic approach in which the primary stochastic variables are the numbers of individuals in each class. The stochastic approach is described by a master equation and the transition…

In the present work the spread of epidemic is studied over complex networks which are characterized by power law degree distribution of links and heterogeneous rate of disease transmission. The random allocation of epidemic transmission…

We study the critical properties of a model of information spreading based on the SIS epidemic model. Spreading rates decay with time, as ruled by two parameters, $\epsilon$ and $l$, that can be either constant or randomly distributed in…

A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight…

Stochastic models play an essential role in accounting for the variability and unpredictability seen in real-world. This paper focuses on the application of the gamma distribution to analysis of the stationary distributions of populations…

The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…

The shape of an epidemic wave in simple epidemic models applies to a homogeneous distribution of infected people in the population. In large inhomogeneous systems, at country-scale for instance, the wave shape is similar except for the…

We considered a model for an infectious disease outbreak, when the depletion of susceptible individuals is negligible, and assumed that individuals adapt their behavior according to the information they receive about new cases. In line with…

Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…

We study the spread of information on multi-type directed random graphs. In such graphs the vertices are partitioned into distinct types (communities) that have different transmission rates between themselves and with other types. We…

Epidemic spreading is well understood when a disease propagates around a contact graph. In a stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible setting, spectral conditions characterise whether the disease vanishes. However, modelling human…

To forecast the time dynamics of an epidemic, we propose a discrete stochastic model that unifies and generalizes previous approaches to the subject. Viewing a given population of individuals or groups of individuals with given health state…

Stochastic epidemic models describe the dynamics of an epidemic as a disease spreads through a population. Typically, only a fraction of cases are observed at a set of discrete times. The absence of complete information about the time…

One of the major issues in the theoretical modeling of epidemic spreading is the development of methods to control the transmission of an infectious agent. Human behavior plays a fundamental role in the spreading dynamics and can be used to…

The fundamental models of epidemiology describe the progression of an infectious disease through a population using compartmentalized differential equations, but do not incorporate population-level heterogeneity in infection susceptibility.…

I study the spreading of infectious diseases on heterogeneous populations. I represent the population structure by a contact-graph where vertices represent agents and edges represent disease transmission channels among them. The population…

This paper analyzes the stationary distributions of populations governed by the discrete stochastic logistic and Ricker difference equations at equilibrium examines with the gamma distribution. We identify mathematical relationships between…

A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…

We investigate the information-theoretical limits of inference tasks in epidemic spreading on graphs in the thermodynamic limit. The typical inference tasks consist in computing observables of the posterior distribution of the epidemic…