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The machine learning literature contains several constructions for prediction intervals that are intuitively reasonable but ultimately ad-hoc in that they do not come with provable performance guarantees. We present methods from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-25 Danijel Kivaranovic , Kory D. Johnson , Hannes Leeb

For the last two decades, high-dimensional data and methods have proliferated throughout the literature. Yet, the classical technique of linear regression has not lost its usefulness in applications. In fact, many high-dimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-18 Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Lawrence D. Brown , Andreas Buja , Edward I. George , Linda Zhao

Meta-analysis can be formulated as combining $p$-values across studies into a joint $p$-value function, from which point estimates and confidence intervals can be derived. We extend the meta-analytic estimation framework based on combined…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-21 David Kronthaler , Leonhard Held

In the analysis of survey data it is of interest to estimate and quantify uncertainty about means or totals for each of several non-overlapping subpopulations, or areas. When the sample size for a given area is small, standard confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-26 Kyle Burris , Peter Hoff

The problem of behaviour prediction for linear parameter-varying systems is considered in the interval framework. It is assumed that the system is subject to uncertain inputs and the vector of scheduling parameters is unmeasurable, but all…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-08-13 Edouard Leurent , Denis Efimov , Tarek Raïssi , Wilfrid Perruquetti

In many applications, different populations are compared using data that are sampled in a biased manner. Under sampling biases, standard methods that estimate the difference between the population means yield unreliable inferences. Here we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-12 Dave Zachariah , Petre Stoica

The abundance of functional observations in scientific endeavors has led to a significant development in tools for functional data analysis (FDA). This kind of data comes with several challenges: infinite-dimensionality of function spaces,…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-11 J. S. Marron , James O. Ramsay , Laura M. Sangalli , Anuj Srivastava

We study the problem of estimating finite sample confidence intervals of the mean of a normal population under the constraint of differential privacy. We consider both the known and unknown variance cases and construct differentially…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2017-11-13 Vishesh Karwa , Salil Vadhan

Variational inference has become an increasingly attractive fast alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximate Bayesian inference. However, a major obstacle to the widespread use of variational methods is the lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-03 Jonathan H. Huggins , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Trevor Campbell , Tamara Broderick

Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-03 Rasool Fakoor , Jonas Mueller , Zachary C. Lipton , Pratik Chaudhari , Alexander J. Smola

Corrected confidence intervals are developed for the mean of the second component of a bivariate normal process when the first component is being monitored sequentially. This is accomplished by constructing a first approximation to a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 R. C. Weng , D. S. Coad

Measurement involves the determination of quantitative estimates of physical quantities from experiment, along with estimates of their associated uncertainties. Herewith an experimental system model is the key to extracting information from…

Applications · Statistics 2008-09-01 Vladimir B. Bokov

Conformal prediction has emerged as a cutting-edge methodology in statistics and machine learning, providing prediction intervals with finite-sample frequentist coverage guarantees. Yet, its interplay with Bayesian statistics, often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Nina Deliu , Brunero Liseo

In engineering, models are often used to represent the behavior of a system. Estimators are then needed to approximate the values of the model's parameters based on observations. This approximation implies a difference between the values…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-11-27 Maël Godard , Luc Jaulin , Damien Massé

We examine the problem of construction of confidence intervals within the basic single-parameter, single-iteration variation of the method of quasi-optimal weights. Two kinds of distortions of such intervals due to insufficiently large…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-05-27 A. D. Morozov , A. V. Lokhov , F. V. Tkachov

Meta-analysis involves combining summary information for related but independent studies. It uses different relationship to combine position measure as well as dispersion measures. The objective of this study is to discuss a relationship…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-02-07 Jose Fausto de Morais

Multi-level normal hierarchical models, also interpreted as mixed effects models, play an important role in developing statistical theory in multi-parameter estimation for a wide range of applications. In this article, we propose a novel…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Aditi Sen , Masayo Y. Hirose , Partha Lahiri

Functional data often arise as sequential temporal observations over a continuous state-space. A set of functional data with a possible change in its structure may lead to a wrong conclusion if it is not taken in to account. So, sometimes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-18 Buddhananda Banerjee , Satyaki Mazumder

Expressions are not functions. Confusing the two concepts or failing to define the function that is computed by an expression weakens the rigour of interval arithmetic. We give such a definition and continue with the required re-statements…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-20 M. H. van Emden , B. Moa

As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g., rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-08 Stephen Salerno , Kentaro Hoffman , Awan Afiaz , Anna Neufeld , Tyler H. McCormick , Jeffrey T. Leek