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Monte Carlo simulation is one of the most important tools in the study of diffusion processes. For constant diffusion coefficients, an appropriate Gaussian distribution of particle's steplengths can generate exact results, when compared…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-06-12 V. Ruiz Barlett , M. Hoyuelos , H. O. Mártin

We review the basic outline of the highly successful diffusion Monte Carlo technique commonly used in contexts ranging from electronic structure calculations to rare event simulation and data assimilation, and propose a new class of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-10-10 Lek-Heng Lim , Jonathan Weare

In this paper we present a novel method for estimating the parameters of a parametric diffusion processes. Our approach is based on a closed-form Maximum Likelihood estimator for an approximating Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 J. L. Kirkby , Dang Nguyen , Duy Nguyen , Nhu Nguyen

The use of continuous probability distributions has been widespread in problems with purely discrete nature. In general, such distributions are not appropriate in this scenario. In this paper, we introduce a class of discrete and asymmetric…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-21 Helton Saulo , Roberto Vila , Leonardo Paiva , Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan

We describe an embarrassingly parallel, anytime Monte Carlo method for likelihood-free models. The algorithm starts with the view that the stochasticity of the pseudo-samples generated by the simulator can be controlled externally by a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-12-03 Edward Meeds , Max Welling

We introduce an inferential framework for a wide class of semi-linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Recent work has shown that numerical splitting schemes can preserve critical properties of such types of SDEs, give rise to…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-22 Shu Huang , Richard G. Everitt , Massimiliano Tamborrino , Adam M. Johansen

Probabilistic prediction of sequences from images and other high-dimensional data is a key challenge, particularly in risk-sensitive applications. In these settings, it is often desirable to quantify the uncertainty associated with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Qidong Yang , Weicheng Zhu , Joseph Keslin , Laure Zanna , Tim G. J. Rudner , Carlos Fernandez-Granda

The behavior of a Lattice Monte Carlo algorithm (if it is designed correctly) must approach that of the continuum system that it is designed to simulate as the time step and the mesh step tend to zero. However, we show for an algorithm for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-08-23 Mykyta V. Chubynsky , Gary W. Slater

In this paper, a modification of the conventional approximations to the quasi-maximum likelihood method is introduced for the parameter estimation of diffusion processes from discrete observations. This is based on a convergent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-12-19 J. C. Jimenez

We propose a modification, based on the RESTART (repetitive simulation trials after reaching thresholds) and DPR (dynamics probability redistribution) rare event simulation algorithms, of the standard diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) algorithm.…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-10 Martin Hairer , Jonathan Weare

In this article we consider likelihood-based estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov (POMV) diffusion process with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. In particular, using the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-12 Ajay Jasra , Mohamed Maama , Raul Tempone

Inferential models (IMs) offer prior-free, Bayesian-like posterior degrees of belief designed for statistical inference, which feature a frequentist-like calibration property that ensures reliability of said inferences. The catch is that…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-09 Ryan Martin

This paper presents a tractable sufficient condition for the consistency of maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) in partially observed diffusion models, stated in terms of stationary distribution of the associated fully observed diffusion,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-10 Sergey Nadtochiy , Yuan Yin

Employing a classical density-functional description of liquid environments, we introduce a rigorous method for the diffusion quantum Monte Carlo calculation of free energies and thermodynamic averages of solvated systems that requires…

This paper develops and analyzes an efficient numerical method for solving elliptic partial differential equations, where the diffusion coefficients are random perturbations of deterministic diffusion coefficients. The method is based upon…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-03-30 X. Feng , J. Lin. , C. Lorton

We describe Monte Carlo approximation to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants and explanatory variables. We consider both sources of randomness (due to the initial sample and to Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-08 Blazej Miasojedow , Wojciech Niemiro , Jan Palczewski , Wojciech Rejchel

The transition density of a diffusion process does not admit an explicit expression in general, which prevents the full maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on discretely observed sample paths. A\"{\i}t-Sahalia [J. Finance 54 (1999)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-12 Jinyuan Chang , Song Xi Chen

We address the problem of likelihood based inference for correlated diffusion processes using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Such a task presents two interesting problems. First, the construction of the MCMC scheme should…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos , Petros Dellaportas , Gareth O. Roberts

In this article, we consider computing expectations w.r.t. probability measures which are subject to discretization error. Examples include partially observed diffusion processes or inverse problems, where one may have to discretize time…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-25 Jeremy Heng , Ajay Jasra , Kody J. H. Law , Alexander Tarakanov

We briefly review the principles, mathematical bases, numerical shortcuts and applications of fast random walk (FRW) algorithms. This Monte Carlo technique allows one to simulate individual trajectories of diffusing particles in order to…

Computational Physics · Physics 2013-05-01 Denis Grebenkov