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We consider maximum likelihood estimation for both causal and noncausal autoregressive time series processes with non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable noise. A nondegenerate limiting distribution is given for maximum likelihood estimators of the…
This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…
In this paper we consider the problem of detecting a change in the parameters of an autoregressive process, where the moments of the innovation process do not necessarily exist. An empirical likelihood ratio test for the existence of a…
The paper deals with the nonparametric estimation problem at a given fixed point for an autoregressive model with unknown distributed noise. Kernel estimate modifications are proposed. Asymptotic minimax and efficiency properties for…
This paper considers non-negative integer-valued autoregressive processes where the autoregression parameter is close to unity. We consider the asymptotics of this `near unit root' situation. The local asymptotic structure of the likelihood…
This paper focuses on recursive estimation of time varying autoregressive processes in a nonparametric setting. The stability of the model is revisited and uniform results are provided when the time-varying autoregressive parameters belong…
In the present paper we consider the varying coefficient model which represents a useful tool for exploring dynamic patterns in many applications. Existing methods typically provide asymptotic evaluation of precision of estimation…
A nearly unstable sequence of stationary spatial autoregressive processes is investigated, when the sum of the absolute values of the autoregressive coefficients tends to one. It is shown that after an appropriate norming the least squares…
We consider a time-varying first-order autoregressive model with irregular innovations, where we assume that the coefficient function is H\"{o}lder continuous. To estimate this function, we use a quasi-maximum likelihood based approach. A…
In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We…
We study the quadratic prediction error method -- i.e., nonlinear least squares -- for a class of time-varying parametric predictor models satisfying a certain identifiability condition. While this method is known to asymptotically achieve…
Change point analysis has become an important research topic in many fields of applications. Several research work has been carried out to detect changes and its locations in time series data. In this paper, a nonparametric method based on…
Estimating hidden processes from non-linear noisy observations is particularly difficult when the parameters of these processes are not known. This paper adopts a machine learning approach to devise variational Bayesian inference for such…
This paper deals with nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for Gaussian locally stationary processes. Our nonparametric MLE is constructed by minimizing a frequency domain likelihood over a class of functions. The asymptotic behavior…
A random coefficient autoregressive process is deeply investigated in which the coefficients are correlated. First we look at the existence of a strictly stationary causal solution, we give the second-order stationarity conditions and the…
An autoregressive process with Markov regime is an autoregressive process for which the regression function at each time point is given by a nonobservable Markov chain. In this paper we consider the asymptotic properties of the maximum…
We propose a novel approach to parameter estimation for simulator-based statistical models with intractable likelihood. Our proposed method involves recursive application of kernel ABC and kernel herding to the same observed data. We…
An autoregressive-moving average model in which all roots of the autoregressive polynomial are reciprocals of roots of the moving average polynomial and vice versa is called an all-pass time series model. All-pass models are useful for…
It is an important task in the literature to check whether a fitted autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is adequate, while the currently used tests may suffer from the size distortion problem when the underlying autoregressive models…
We consider the nonparametric robust estimation problem for regression models in continuous time with semi-Markov noises. An adaptive model selection procedure is proposed. Under general moment conditions on the noise distribution a sharp…