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Many aspects of the historical relationships between populations in a species are reflected in genetic data. Inferring these relationships from genetic data, however, remains a challenging task. In this paper, we present a statistical model…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-11-20 Joseph K. Pickrell , Jonathan K. Pritchard

Causal effect estimation in networked systems is central to data-driven decision making. In such settings, interventions on one unit can spill over to others, and in complex physical or social systems, the interaction pathways driving these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-27 Sadegh Shirani , Mohsen Bayati

The controlled branching process is a generalization of the classical Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson branching process. It is a useful model for describing the evolution of populations in which the population size at each generation needs to be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-09 M. Gonzalez , C. Minuesa , I. del Puerto

Multivariate spatial fields are of interest in many applications, including climate model emulation. Not only can the marginal spatial fields be subject to nonstationarity, but the dependence structure among the marginal fields and between…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-21 Paul F. V. Wiemann , Matthias Katzfuss

An inductive probabilistic classification rule must generally obey the principles of Bayesian predictive inference, such that all observed and unobserved stochastic quantities are jointly modeled and the parameter uncertainty is fully…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-25 Henrik Nyman , Jie Xiong , Johan Pensar , Jukka Corander

This paper considers inference for a function of a parameter vector in a partially identified model with many moment inequalities. This framework allows the number of moment conditions to grow with the sample size, possibly at exponential…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-02 Alexandre Belloni , Federico Bugni , Victor Chernozhukov

We introduce a methodology for performing parameter inference in high-dimensional, non-linear diffusion processes. We illustrate its applicability for obtaining insights into the evolution of and relationships between species, including…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-15 Nicklas Boserup , Gefan Yang , Michael Lind Severinsen , Christy Anna Hipsley , Stefan Sommer

We present the first fully variational Bayesian inference scheme for continuous Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes. Such point processes are used in a variety of domains, including neuroscience, geo-statistics and astronomy, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-29 Chris Lloyd , Tom Gunter , Michael A. Osborne , Stephen J. Roberts

Individual-based models of contagious processes are useful for predicting epidemic trajectories and informing intervention strategies. In such models, the incorporation of contact network information can capture the non-randomness and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-11-09 Maxwell H. Wang , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

Statistical Inference is the process of determining a probability distribution over the space of parameters of a model given a data set. As more data becomes available this probability distribution becomes updated via the application of…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2022-04-28 David S. Berman , Jonathan J. Heckman , Marc Klinger

Persistence diagrams offer a way to summarize topological and geometric properties latent in datasets. While several methods have been developed that utilize persistence diagrams in statistical inference, a full Bayesian treatment remains…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-08 Vasileios Maroulas , Farzana Nasrin , Christopher Oballe

The Poisson log-normal model is a latent variable model that provides a generic framework for the analysis of multivariate count data. Inferring its parameters can be a daunting task since the conditional distribution of the latent…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-19 Julien Stoehr , Stephane S. Robin

Non-homogeneous Poisson processes are used in a wide range of scientific disciplines, ranging from the environmental sciences to the health sciences. Often, the central object of interest in a point process is the underlying intensity…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-11 Tin Lok James Ng , Andrew Zammit-Mangion

This work studies nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson point process in the important case where the intensity depends on covariates, based on the observation of a single realisation of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-09 Matteo Giordano , Alisa Kirichenko , Judith Rousseau

Outlying observations are frequently encountered across a wide spectrum of scientific domains, posing notable challenges to the generalizability of statistical models and the reproducibility of downstream analysis. They are identified…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Dongliang Zhang , Masoud Asgharian , Martin A. Lindquist

Using topological summaries of gene trees as a basis for species tree inference is a promising approach to obtain acceptable speed on genomic-scale datasets, and to avoid some undesirable modeling assumptions. Here we study the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-04-17 Elizabeth S. Allman , James H. Degnan , John A. Rhodes

Transcription is a complex phenomenon that permits the conversion of genetic information into phenotype by means of an enzyme called RNA polymerase, which erratically moves along and scans the DNA template. We perform Bayesian inference…

Biological Physics · Physics 2023-07-18 Massimo Cavallaro , Yuexuan Wang , Daniel Hebenstreit , Ritabrata Dutta

In the present paper we demonstrate the results of a statistical analysis of some characteristics of precipitation events and propose a kind of a theoretical explanation of the proposed models in terms of mixed Poisson and mixed exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-28 V. Yu. Korolev , A. K. Gorshenin , S. K. Gulev , K. P. Belyaev , A. A. Grusho

We continue studies of the uncertainty quantification problem in emission tomographies such as PET or SPECT when additional multimodal data (e.g., anatomical MRI images) are available. To solve the aforementioned problem we adapt the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-03 Fedor Goncharov , Éric Barat , Thomas Dautremer

Suppose a process yields independent observations whose distributions belong to a family parameterized by \theta\in\Theta. When the process is in control, the observations are i.i.d. with a known parameter value \theta_0. When the process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Gary Lorden , Moshe Pollak