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Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-06 Yuejiang Liu , Riccardo Cadei , Jonas Schweizer , Sherwin Bahmani , Alexandre Alahi

Several applications in time series forecasting require predicting multiple steps ahead. Despite the vast amount of literature in the topic, both classical and recent deep learning based approaches have mostly focused on minimising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Ignacio Hounie , Javier Porras-Valenzuela , Alejandro Ribeiro

This paper addresses the estimation of locally stationary long-range dependent processes, a methodology that allows the statistical analysis of time series data exhibiting both nonstationarity and strong dependency. A time-varying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-12 Wilfredo Palma , Ricardo Olea

For the challenging task of modeling multivariate time series, we propose a new class of models that use dependent Mat\'ern processes to capture the underlying structure of data, explain their interdependencies, and predict their unknown…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-02-13 Alexander Vandenberg-Rodes , Babak Shahbaba

We propose a two-step procedure to model and predict high-dimensional functional time series, where the number of function-valued time series $p$ is large in relation to the length of time series $n$. Our first step performs an…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-04 Jinyuan Chang , Qin Fang , Xinghao Qiao , Qiwei Yao

Time series are used in many domains including finance, engineering, economics and bioinformatics generally to represent the change of a measurement over time. Modeling techniques may then be used to give a synthetic representation of such…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-30 Faicel Chamroukhi , Allou Samé , Gérard Govaert , Patrice Aknin

Nonlinear and non-stationary processes are prevalent in various natural and physical phenomena, where system dynamics can change qualitatively due to bifurcation phenomena. Traditional machine learning methods have advanced our ability to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-21 Keita Tokuda , Yuichi Katori

We present a dynamic prediction framework for binary sequences that is based on a Bernoulli generalization of the auto-regressive process. Our approach lends itself easily to variants of the standard link prediction problem for a sequence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-24 Xiaohan Yan , Avleen S. Bijral

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in multivariate time series analysis for describing the short-time dynamics of the data. The reduced-rank VAR models are of particular interest when dealing with high-dimensional and highly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-02 Farida Enikeeva , Olga Klopp , Mathilde Rousselot

We consider the on-line predictive version of the standard problem of linear regression; the goal is to predict each consecutive response given the corresponding explanatory variables and all the previous observations. We are mainly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-22 Vladimir Vovk , Ilia Nouretdinov , Alex Gammerman

Network models are applied across many domains where data can be represented as a network. Two prominent paradigms for modeling networks are statistical models (probabilistic models for the observed network) and mechanistic models (models…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-20 Sixing Chen , Antonietta Mira , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

This article considers ultrahigh-dimensional forecasting problems with survival response variables. We propose a two-step model averaging procedure for improving the forecasting accuracy of the true conditional mean of a survival response…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-28 Xiaodong Yan , Hongni Wang , Wei Wang , Jinhan Xie , Yanyan Ren , Xinjun Wang

This article contributes to the search for a notion of postural style, focusing on the issue of classifying subjects in terms of how they maintain posture. Longer term, the hope is to make it possible to determine on a case by case basis…

Applications · Statistics 2012-09-28 Antoine Chambaz , Christophe Denis

Existing well investigated Predictive Process Monitoring techniques typically construct a predictive model based on past process executions, and then use it to predict the future of new ongoing cases, without the possibility of updating it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Williams Rizzi , Chiara Di Francescomarino , Chiara Ghidini , Fabrizio Maria Maggi

Many applications of machine learning methods involve an iterative protocol in which data are collected, a model is trained, and then outputs of that model are used to choose what data to consider next. For example, one data-driven approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Clara Fannjiang , Stephen Bates , Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Jennifer Listgarten , Michael I. Jordan

Prediction with the possibility of abstention (or selective prediction) is an important problem for error-critical machine learning applications. While well-studied in the classification setup, selective approaches to regression are much…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-29 Fedor Noskov , Alexander Fishkov , Maxim Panov

Performance estimation aims at estimating the loss that a predictive model will incur on unseen data. These procedures are part of the pipeline in every machine learning project and are used for assessing the overall generalisation ability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Vitor Cerqueira , Luis Torgo , Igor Mozetic

In this paper it is reconsidered the prediction problem in time series framework by using a new non-parametric approach. Through this reconsideration, the prediction is obtained by a weighted sum of past observed data. These weights are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-27 Pedro Cadahía , Jose Manuel Bravo Caro

We introduce and test a general machine-learning-based technique for the inference of short term causal dependence between state variables of an unknown dynamical system from time series measurements of its state variables. Our technique…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2020-12-18 Amitava Banerjee , Jaideep Pathak , Rajarshi Roy , Juan G. Restrepo , Edward Ott

The goal of sequential event prediction is to estimate the next event based on a sequence of historical events, with applications to sequential recommendation, user behavior analysis and clinical treatment. In practice, the next-event…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Chenxiao Yang , Qitian Wu , Qingsong Wen , Zhiqiang Zhou , Liang Sun , Junchi Yan