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Most causal inference studies rely on the assumption of overlap to estimate population or sample average causal effects. When data exhibit non-overlap, estimation of these estimands requires reliance on model specifications, due to poor…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-17 Rachel C. Nethery , Fabrizia Mealli , Francesca Dominici

Often in surveys, key items are subject to measurement errors. Given just the data, it can be difficult to determine the distribution of this error process, and hence to obtain accurate inferences that involve the error-prone variables. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-04 Tracy Schifeling , Jerome P. Reiter , Maria DeYoreo

To estimate causal effects from observational data, an applied researcher must impose beliefs. The instrumental variables exclusion restriction, for example, represents the belief that the instrument has no direct effect on the outcome of…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-11-17 Francis J. DiTraglia , Camilo Garcia-Jimeno

I discuss the effects of measurement error on regression and density estimation. I review the statistical methods that have been developed to correct for measurement error that are most popular in astronomical data analysis, discussing…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2011-12-09 Brandon C. Kelly

In the absence of a randomized experiment, a key assumption for drawing causal inference about treatment effects is the ignorable treatment assignment. Violations of the ignorability assumption may lead to biased treatment effect estimates.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-17 Liangyuan Hu , Jungang Zou , Chenyang Gu , Jiayi Ji , Michael Lopez , Minal Kale

In many applications, different populations are compared using data that are sampled in a biased manner. Under sampling biases, standard methods that estimate the difference between the population means yield unreliable inferences. Here we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-12 Dave Zachariah , Petre Stoica

It has long been noticed that the efficacy observed in small early phase studies is generally better than that observed in later larger studies. Historically, the inflation of the efficacy results from early proof-of-concept studies is…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-11 Yongming Qu , Yu Du , Ying Zhang , Lei Shen

Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to 'mine' variables of interest…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-22 Mochen Yang , Edward McFowland , Gordon Burtch , Gediminas Adomavicius

In causal inference, sensitivity models assess how unmeasured confounders could alter causal analyses, but the sensitivity parameter -- which quantifies the degree of unmeasured confounding -- is often difficult to interpret. For this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-04 Alec McClean , Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy

Mediation analysis is widely used in health science research to evaluate the extent to which an intermediate variable explains an observed exposure-outcome relationship. However, the validity of analysis can be compromised when the exposure…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-06 Chao Cheng , Donna Spiegelman , Fan Li

We report an inconsistency found in probability theory (also referred to as measure-theoretic probability). For probability measures induced by real-valued random variables, we deduce an "equality" such that one side of the "equality" is a…

General Mathematics · Mathematics 2017-03-01 Guang-Liang Li , Victor O. K. Li

The estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in the potential outcome setting is biased when there exists model misspecification or unobserved confounding. As these biases are unobservable, what model to use when remains a critical…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-09 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Kosaku Takanashi , Kenichiro McAlinn , Edoardo M. Airoldi

We consider a framework for determining and estimating the conditional pairwise relationships of variables when the observed samples are contaminated with measurement error in high dimensional settings. Assuming the true underlying…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-05 Michael Byrd , Linh Nghiem , Monnie McGee

An informative sampling design leads to the selection of units whose inclusion probabilities are correlated with the response variable of interest. Model inference performed on the resulting observed sample will be biased for the population…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-29 Matthew R. Williams , Terrance D. Savitsky

Scientists have been interested in estimating causal peer effects to understand how people's behaviors are affected by their network peers. However, it is well known that identification and estimation of causal peer effects are challenging…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-07 Naoki Egami , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Measurement error in multinomial data is a well-known and well-studied inferential problem that is encountered in many fields, including engineering, biomedical and omics research, ecology, finance, official statistics, and social sciences.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-15 Matthew D. Koslovsky , Andee Kaplan , Victoria A. Terranova , Mevin B. Hooten

Stress testing poses a causal question: how would portfolio credit losses change if the macroeconomy followed an adverse counterfactual path? Yet standard practice remains predictive and might be therefore vulnerable to omitted-variable…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Yu Wang , Xiangchen Liu , Siguang Li

In many applications of regression discontinuity designs, the running variable used by the administrator to assign treatment is only observed with error. We show that, provided the observed running variable (i) correctly classifies the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-11 Yingying Dong , Michal Kolesár

When estimating an effect of an action with a randomized or observational study, that study is often not a random sample of the desired target population. Instead, estimates from that study can be transported to the target population.…

Approximate Bayesian Computation is a family of likelihood-free inference techniques that are well-suited to models defined in terms of a stochastic generating mechanism. In a nutshell, Approximate Bayesian Computation proceeds by computing…

Computation · Statistics 2010-07-28 Michael Blum