Related papers: MicroSim: Modeling the Swedish Population
We consider an age-structured epidemic model with two basic public health interventions: (i) identifying and isolating symptomatic cases, and (ii) tracing and quarantine of the contacts of identified infectives. The dynamics of the infected…
This paper describes an agent-based model of epidemics dynamics. This model is willingly simplified, as its goal is not to predict the evolution of the epidemics, but to explain the underlying mechanisms in an interactive way. This model…
A general stochastic model for susceptible -> infective -> recovered (SIR) epidemics in non homogeneous populations is considered. The heterogeneity is a very important aspect here since it allows more realistic but also more complex…
Influenza remains a significant burden on health systems. Effective responses rely on the timely understanding of the magnitude and the evolution of an outbreak. For monitoring purposes, data on severe cases of influenza in England are…
The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…
This study presents a family of stochastic models for the dynamics of influenza in a closed human population. We consider treatment for the disease in the form of vaccination, and incorporate the periods of effectiveness of the vaccine and…
The latest pandemic COVID-19 brought governments worldwide to use various containment measures to control its spread, such as contact tracing, social distance regulations, and curfews. Epidemiological simulations are commonly used to assess…
A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…
Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…
This paper considers a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic reaction-diffusion model with no-flux boundary conditions and varying total population. The interaction of the susceptible and infected people is describe by the…
The June software package is an open-source framework for the detailed simulation of epidemics based on social interactions in a virtual population reflecting age, gender, ethnicity, and socio-economic indicators in England. In this paper,…
The simplest epidemiologic model composed by mutually exclusive compartments SIR (susceptible-infected-susceptible) is presented to describe a reality. From health concerns to situations related with marketing, informatics or even…
Data-driven epidemic simulation helps better policymaking. Compared with macro-scale simulations driven by statistical data, individual-level GPS data can afford finer and spatialized results. However, the big GPS data, usually collected…
Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…
We develop a simulation tool to support policy-decisions about healthcare for chronic diseases in defined populations. Incident disease-cases are generated in-silico from an age-sex characterised general population using standard…
Can we simulate a sandbox society with generative agents to model human behavior, thereby reducing the over-reliance on real human trials for assessing public policies? In this work, we investigate the feasibility of simulating…
We study dynamics of spread of epidemics of SIR type in a realistic spatially-explicit geographical region, Southern and Central Ontario, using census data obtained from Statistics Canada, and examine the role of population mixing in…
Developing the ability to comprehensively study infections in small populations enables us to improve epidemic models and better advise individuals about potential risks to their health. We currently have a limited understanding of how…
Recent work has focused attention on statistical inference for the population distribution of the number of sexual partners based on survey data. The characteristics of these distributions are of interest as components of mathematical…
Simulation models are an absolute necessity in the human and social sciences, which can only very exceptionally use experimental science methods to construct their knowledge. Models enable the simulation of social processes by replacing the…