Related papers: Bayesian reasoning in cosmology
Bayesian statistics is based on the subjective definition of probability as {\it ``degree of belief''} and on Bayes' theorem, the basic tool for assigning probabilities to hypotheses combining {\it a priori} judgements and experimental…
The standard big bang cosmology has been greatly successful in explaining many observational aspects of the real universe. However, two particular diffficulties faced by it are the so-called ``horizon'' and ``flatness'' problems. By…
This is an attempt to find a hidden virtue in Tolman's paradox by showing that it can give rise to quantum superposition. We consider tachyon exchange between two particles and show that it can generate superposition of eigenstates…
We present a Bayesian analysis of the epistemology of analogue experiments with particular reference to Hawking radiation. First, we prove that such experiments can be confirmatory in Bayesian terms based upon appeal to 'universality…
The notion of argumentation and the one of belief stand in a problematic relation to one another. On the one hand, argumentation is crucial for belief formation: as the outcome of a process of arguing, an agent might come to (justifiably)…
We use Bayesian model selection techniques to test extensions of the standard flat LambdaCDM paradigm. Dark-energy and curvature scenarios, and primordial perturbation models are considered. To that end, we calculate the Bayesian evidence…
One of the most enduring and unresolved challenges in modern theoretical and observational cosmology is the fine-tuning and coincidence problems associated with the cosmological constant. Rather than attempting to reconcile these issues…
The basic problem of quantum cosmology is the definition of the quantum state of the universe, with appropriate boundary conditions on Riemannian three-geometries. This paper describes recent progress in the corresponding analysis of…
We propose here a \emph{novel} method which singles out the \emph{a priori} unavoidable dependence on the underlying cosmological model when extracting parameter constraints, providing robust limits which only depend on the considered…
Current theories of particle physics lead to the unavoidable conclusion that there must have been several phase transitions in the early universe. Further, in the context of these theories, it is possible that cosmological phase transitions…
The classical conception of falsification presents scientific theories as entities that are decisively refuted when their predictions fail. This picture has long been challenged by both philosophical analysis and scientific practice, yet…
Frequentist (classical) and the Bayesian approaches to the construction of confidence limits are compared. Various examples which illustrate specific problems are presented. The Likelihood Principle and the Stopping Rule Paradox are…
This textbook provides a systematic treatment of statistical machine learning for astronomical research through the lens of Bayesian inference, developing a unified framework that reveals connections between modern data analysis techniques…
Interest in problems of statistical inference connected to measurements of quantum systems has recently increased substantially, in step with dramatic new developments in experimental techniques for studying small quantum systems.…
The standard model of cosmology is investigated using time dependent cosmological constant $\Lambda$ and Newton's gravitational constant $G$. The total energy content is described by the modified Chaplygin gas equation of state. It is found…
For several decades now, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to theories of particle physics, cosmology and astrophysics to obtain the probability density functions of their free parameters. In this study, we review and compare…
The way a rational agent changes her belief in certain propositions/hypotheses in the light of new evidence lies at the heart of Bayesian inference. The basic natural assumption, as summarized in van Fraassen's Reflection Principle…
The accelerating expansion of the Universe poses a major challenge to our understanding of fundamental physics. One promising avenue is to modify general relativity and obtain a new description of the gravitational force. Because…
We introduce the "wedge diagram," an intuitive way to illustrate how cosmological models with a classical (non-singular) bounce generically resolve fundamental problems in cosmology. These include the well-known horizon, flatness, and…
Recent results indicate the presence of a cosmological constant (or related dark energy) in the universe. It has been conjectured recently that the interaction parameters of physical theories may be dependant on the size parameter of the…