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A framework is presented for fitting inverse problem models via variational Bayes approximations. This methodology guarantees flexibility to statistical model specification for a broad range of applications, good accuracy and reduced model…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-05 Luca Maestrini , Robert G. Aykroyd , Matt P. Wand

In this paper, we develop a graphical modeling framework for the inference of networks across multiple sample groups and data types. In medical studies, this setting arises whenever a set of subjects, which may be heterogeneous due to…

Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-23 Dylan J. Morris , Lauren Kennedy , Andrew J. Black

The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-05 Henrik Häggström , Sebastian Persson , Marija Cvijovic , Umberto Picchini

Given a collection of features available for inclusion in a predictive model, it may be of interest to quantify the relative importance of a subset of features for the prediction task at hand. For example, in HIV vaccine trials, participant…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-27 Charles J. Wolock , Peter B. Gilbert , Noah Simon , Marco Carone

Repeating an imperfect biomarker test based on an initial result can introduce bias and influence misclassification risk. For example, in some blood donation settings, blood donors' hemoglobin is remeasured when the initial measurement…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-17 Supun Manathunga , Mart P. Janssen , Yu Luo , W. Alton Russell , Mart Pothast

The COVID-19 pandemic provides new motivation for a classic problem in epidemiology: estimating the empirical rate of transmission during an outbreak (formally, the time-varying reproduction number) from case counts. While standard methods…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-08 Bryan Wilder , Michael J. Mina , Milind Tambe

The pursuit of strategies that minimize the number of individuals needing vaccination to control an outbreak is a well-established area of study in mathematical epidemiology. However, for certain diseases, public policy tends to prioritize…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-30 J. Orestes Cerdeira , Fabio A. C. C. Chalub , Matheus Hansen

Many epidemic models are naturally defined as individual-based models: where we track the state of each individual within a susceptible population. Inference for individual-based models is challenging due to the high-dimensional state-space…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-04 Lorenzo Rimella , Christopher Jewell , Paul Fearnhead

The formulation of Bayesian inverse problems involves choosing prior distributions; choices that seem equally reasonable may lead to significantly different conclusions. We develop a computational approach to better understand the impact of…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-08 John E. Darges , Alen Alexanderian , Pierre A. Gremaud

We develop an empirical Bayes procedure for estimating the cell means in an unbalanced, two-way additive model with fixed effects. We employ a hierarchical model, which reflects exchangeability of the effects within treatment and within…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-30 Lawrence D. Brown , Gourab Mukherjee , Asaf Weinstein

Microorganisms play critical roles in human health and disease. It is well known that microbes live in diverse communities in which they interact synergistically or antagonistically. Thus for estimating microbial associations with clinical…

Background. Several studies have used phylogenetics to investigate Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) transmission among Men who have Sex with Men (MSMs) in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, revealing many transmission clusters. The Quebec HIV…

Improving health worldwide will require rigorous quantification of population-level trends in health status. However, global-level surveys are not available, forcing researchers to rely on fragmentary country-specific data of varying…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-20 Mariel M. Finucane , Christopher J. Paciorek , Goodarz Danaei , Majid Ezzati

Psychiatric and social epidemiology often involves assessing the effects of environmental exposure on outcomes that are difficult to measure directly. To address this problem, it is common to measure outcomes using a comprehensive battery…

Bayesian nonparametric inferential procedures based on Markov chain Monte Carlo marginal methods typically yield point estimates in the form of posterior expectations. Though very useful and easy to implement in a variety of statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-04 Julyan Arbel , Antonio Lijoi , Bernardo Nipoti

Bayesian phylogenetic inference is currently done via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with simple proposal mechanisms. This hinders exploration efficiency and often requires long runs to deliver accurate posterior estimates. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Cheng Zhang , Frederick A. Matsen

Bayesian max-margin models have shown superiority in various practical applications, such as text categorization, collaborative prediction, social network link prediction and crowdsourcing, and they conjoin the flexibility of Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-19 Wenbo Hu , Jun Zhu , Bo Zhang

We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Pieter Vanmechelen , Geert Lombaert , Giovanni Samaey

Bayesian regression remains a simple but effective tool based on Bayesian inference techniques. For large-scale applications, with complicated posterior distributions, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are applied. To improve the well-known…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-28 Joris Tavernier , Jaak Simm , Adam Arany , Karl Meerbergen , Yves Moreau