Related papers: Long-term impact risk for (101955) 1999 RQ36
Every year, a few metre-sized meteoroids impact the atmosphere of the Earth. Most (if not all) of them are undetectable before the impact. Therefore, predicting where and how they will fall seems to be an impossible task. In this letter we…
The Yarkovsky effect plays an important role in the motions of small celestial bodies. Increasingly improving observations bring the need of high-accuracy modelling of the effect. Using a multiphysics software COMSOL, we model the diurnal…
At the end of its discovery apparition, the $\sim$60 m near-Earth object 2024 YR4 was associated with a non-zero probability of lunar impact during its 2032 December 22 close approach. While posing no threat to Earth, a lunar impact of this…
This paper presents a robust linear method for impact probability estimation of near-Earth asteroids with the Earth. This method is a significantly modified and improved method, which uses a special curvilinear coordinate system associated…
Near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) that may evolve into impactors deserve detailed threat assessment studies. Early physical characterization of a would-be impactor may help in optimizing impact mitigation plans. We first detected NEA…
Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at about 3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar…
We aim at providing a preliminary approach on the dynamics of a spacecraft in orbit about the asteroid (99942) Apophis during its Earth close approach. The physical properties from the polyhedral shape of the target are derived assigning…
Short-arc orbit determination is crucial when an asteroid is first discovered. In these cases usually the observations are so few that the differential correction procedure may not converge. We have developed an initial orbit computation…
This paper presents an analysis of optimal impact strategies to deflect potentially dangerous asteroids. To compute the increase in the minimum orbit intersection distance of the asteroid due to an impact with a spacecraft, simple…
The rotation state of small asteroids is affected by the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect, which is a net torque caused by solar radiation directly reflected and thermally reemitted from the surface. Due to this effect,…
We present our investigations of the physical and dynamical properties of selected Earth co-orbital asteroids. The photometric optical light curves as well as rotation periods and pole solutions for a sample of four Earth co-orbital…
In Epoch 2 of the 2024 PDC25 Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Scenario, an asteroid is confirmed to be on a collision course with the Earth, and its size and surface composition have been well characterized via a flyby mission. A kinetic…
Aims. We investigate the influence of the Yarkovsky force on the long-term orbital evolution of Jupiter Trojan asteroids. Methods. Clones of the observed population with different sizes and different thermal properties were numerically…
Recent discoveries show that asteroids spinning in less than a few minutes undergo sizeable semi-major-axis drifts, possibly driven by the Yarkovsky effect. Analytical formulas can match these drifts only if very low thermal inertia is…
We explore the Yarkovsky effect on small binary asteroids. While significant attention has been given to the binary YORP effect, the Yarkovsky effect is often overlooked. We develop an analytical model for the binary Yarkovsky effect,…
The current philosophy of impact hazard considers the danger from small asteroids negligible. However, several facts claim for a revision of this philosophy. In this paper, some of these facts are reviewed and discussed. It is worth noting…
The observed near-Earth asteroid population contains very few objects with small perihelion distances, say, q<=0.2 au. NEAs that currently have orbits with larger q might be hiding a past evolution during which they have approached closer…
We discuss a hypothetical existential threat from a 10 km diameter bolide discovered 6 months prior to impact with one case being a comet and the other being an asteroid. We show that an extension of our work on bolide fragmentation using…
The near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 -- a $\sim$60 m rocky object that was once considered a potential Earth impactor -- has since been ruled out for Earth but retained a $\sim$4.3% probability of striking the Moon in 2032. Such an impact, with…
Currently, 20 co-orbital asteroids of Venus are known, with only one with an eccentricity below 0.38. This is most likely caused by observational biases since asteroids with larger eccentricities may approach the Earth and are easier to…