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We study algorithms to analyze a particular class of Markov population processes that is often used in epidemiology. More specifically, Markov binomial chains are the model that arises from stochastic time-discretizations of classical…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Alejandro Alarcón Gonzalez , Niel Hens , Tim Leys , Guillermo A. Pérez

We propose a class of continuous-time Markov counting processes for analyzing correlated binary data and establish a correspondence between these models and sums of exchangeable Bernoulli random variables. Our approach generalizes many…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-28 Forrest W. Crawford , Daniel Zelterman

A large offspring number diploid biparental multilocus population model of Moran type is our object of study. At each timestep, a pair of diploid individuals drawn uniformly at random contribute offspring to the population. The number of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-10-31 Matthias Birkner , Jochen Blath , Bjarki Eldon

The sequentially Markov coalescent (SMC) is a Markov jump process which models correlations in local genealogies across a chromosome. It has been used as a theoretical tool for studying linkage disequilibrium and identity-by-descent, and it…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-23 Jonathan Terhorst

We study the continuous-time evolution of the recombination equation of population genetics. This evolution is given by a differential equation that acts on a product probability space, and its solution can be described by a Markov chain on…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-20 Ian Letter , Servet Martínez

We study a density-dependent Markov jump process describing a population where each individual is characterized by a type, and reproduces at rates depending both on its type and on the population type distribution. We are interested in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-26 Madeleine Kubasch

We define a Markov process in a forward population model with backward genealogy given by the $\Lambda$-coalescent. This Markov process, called the fixation line, is related to the block counting process through its hitting times. Two…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-10 Olivier Hénard

Many population genetic models have been developed for the purpose of inferring population size and growth rates from random samples of genetic data. We examine two popular approaches to this problem, the coalescent and the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-08-29 Erik M. Volz , Simon DW Frost

Widely used models in genetics include the Wright-Fisher diffusion and its moment dual, Kingman's coalescent. Each has a multilocus extension but under neither extension is the sampling distribution available in closed-form, and their…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-24 Paul A. Jenkins , Paul Fearnhead , Yun S. Song

We consider a single genetic locus which carries two alleles, labelled P and Q. This locus experiences selection and mutation. It is linked to a second neutral locus with recombination rate r. If r=0, this reduces to the study of a single…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 N. H. Barton , A. M. Etheridge , A. K. Sturm

We consider continuous time Markovian processes where populations of individual agents interact stochastically according to kinetic rules. Despite the increasing prominence of such models in fields ranging from biology to smart cities,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-16 Anastasis Georgoulas , Jane Hillston , Guido Sanguinetti

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics. Kingman's coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-20 Mandev S. Gill , Philippe Lemey , Shannon N. Bennett , Roman Biek , Marc A. Suchard

In recent years, a number of methods have been developed to infer complex demographic histories, especially historical population size changes, from genomic sequence data. Coalescent Hidden Markov Models have proven to be particularly…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-10-10 Alexey Miroshnikov , Matthias Steinrücken

Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm in the sequential data setting.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-08 Pengyu Wang , Phil Blunsom

We introduce a general diploid population model with self-fertilization and possible overlapping generations, and study the genealogy of a sample of $n$ genes as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Unlike traditional approach in…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-01 Louis Wai-Tong Fan , Maximillian Newman , John Wakeley

The coalescent revolutionised theoretical population genetics, simplifying, or making possible for the first time, many analyses, proofs, and derivations, and offering crucial insights about the way in which the structure of data in samples…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-06-09 Peter Donnelly , Stephen Leslie

Understanding patterns of selectively neutral genetic variation is essential in order to model deviations from neutrality, caused for example by different forms of selection. Best understood is neutral genetic variation at a single locus,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-06-13 E. Schaper , A. Eriksson , M. Rafajlovic , S. Sagitov , B. Mehlig

Coalescents with multiple collisions (also called Lambda-coalescents or simple exchangeable coalescents) are used as models of genealogies. We study a new class of Markovian coalescent processes connected to a population model with…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-03-02 Clément Foucart

We show that each member of a broad class of Markovian population models induces a unique stochastic process on the space of genealogies. We construct this genealogy process and derive exact expressions for the likelihood of an observed…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2026-05-22 Aaron A. King , Qianying Lin , Edward L. Ionides

We study coalescent processes conditional on the population pedigree under the exchangeable diploid bi-parental population model of \citet{BirknerEtAl2018}. While classical coalescent models average over all reproductive histories, thereby…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-22 Frederic Alberti , Matthias Birkner , Wai-Tong Louis Fan , John Wakeley