Related papers: Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Ar…
Tipping elements in the climate system are large-scale subregions of the Earth that might possess threshold behavior under global warming with large potential impacts on human societies. Here, we study a subset of five tipping elements and…
During the summer melt period, ponds form on the surface of Arctic sea ice as it melts, with important consequences for ice evolution and marine ecology. Due to the ice-albedo feedback, these melt ponds experience uneven heat absorption,…
The only source of ice formation in the Arctic during summer is a layer of ice called false-bottoms between an under-ice melt pond and the underlying ocean. Of interest is to give a mathematical model in order to determine the simultaneous…
The warming of the Arctic, also known as Arctic amplification, is led by several atmospheric and oceanic drivers. However, the details of its underlying thermodynamic causes are still unknown. Inferring the causal effects of atmospheric…
Recently the global average temperature has temporarily exceeded the 1.5{\deg}C goal of the Paris Agreement, and so an overshoot of various climate tipping elements becomes increasingly likely. In this study we analyze the physical…
Snowball episodes are associated with increases in atmospheric oxygen and the complexity of life on Earth, and they may be essential for the development of complex life on exoplanets. Sustained, stable Snowball episodes require a Snowball…
Abrupt shifts in ecosystems, brains, markets, and climate are often diagnosed as signs of approaching a tipping point, i.e. a critical bifurcation where stability is lost. Here we reveal a broader and more deceptive mechanism:…
Our ability to predict the future of Arctic sea ice is limited by ice's sensitivity to detailed surface conditions such as the distribution of snow and melt ponds. Snow on top of the ice decreases ice's thermal conductivity, increases its…
Climate driven reductions in Arctic sea ice have renewed interest in trans Arctic shipping, but adoption remains limited by basic questions of route feasibility, safety and excess distance. Existing studies mostly compare idealised great…
Sea ice, or frozen ocean water, freezes and melts every year in the Arctic. Forecasts of where sea ice will be located weeks to months in advance have become more important as the amount of sea ice declines due to climate change, for…
We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. We visually detail the evolution of…
Coupled climate model simulations designed to isolate the effects of Arctic sea-ice loss often apply artificial heating, either directly to the ice or through modification of the surface albedo, to constrain sea-ice in the absence of other…
Although iceberg models have been used for decades, they have received far more widespread attention in recent years, in part due to efforts to explicitly represent icebergs in climate models. This calls for increased scrutiny of all…
Arctic sea ice extent has drawn increasing interest and alarm from geoscientists, owing to its rapid decline. In this article, we propose a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical statistical model for binary Arctic sea ice data over two…
Rapid changes in Earth's cryosphere caused by human activity can lead to significant environmental impacts. Computer models provide a useful tool for understanding the behavior and projecting the future of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets.…
Identifying liquid water on the surface of planets is a high priority, as this traditionally defines habitability. One proposed signature of oceans is specular reflection ("glint"), which increases the apparent albedo of a planet at…
Climate change, amplified in the far north, has led to rapid sea ice decline in recent years. In the summer, melt ponds form on the surface of Arctic sea ice, significantly lowering the ice reflectivity (albedo) and thereby accelerating ice…
Paleoclimate proxy records and models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can transition abruptly between a strong and a weak state. Empirical warning signals in observational fingerprints indeed suggest a…
Perhaps the most iconic feature of melting Arctic sea ice is the formation of distinctive, complex ponds on its surface during late spring. The evolution of melt ponds and their geometrical characteristics determines the albedo of sea ice,…
Recently pseudo-critical temperature clues were observed in one-dimensional spin models, such as the Ising-Heisenberg spin models, among others. Here we report a relationship between the zero-temperature phase boundary residual entropy…