Related papers: Threshold behaviour and final outcome of an epidem…
The duration, type and structure of connections between individuals in real-world populations play a crucial role in how diseases invade and spread. Here, we incorporate the aforementioned heterogeneities into a model by considering a…
The simplest epidemiologic model composed by mutually exclusive compartments SIR (susceptible-infected-susceptible) is presented to describe a reality. From health concerns to situations related with marketing, informatics or even…
Infectious disease epidemiologists routinely fit stochastic epidemic models to time series data to elucidate infectious disease dynamics, evaluate interventions, and forecast epidemic trajectories. To improve computational tractability,…
It has been known that epidemic outbreaks in the SIR model on networks are described by phase transitions. Despite the similarity with percolation transitions, whether an epidemic outbreak occurs or not cannot be predicted with probability…
We consider an infectious disease spreading along the edges of a network which may have significant clustering. The individuals in the population have heterogeneous infectiousness and/or susceptibility. We define the out-transmissibility of…
We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model of the spread of an endemic infection. We calculate an exact expression for the mean number of transmissions for all values of the population and the infectivity. We derive the large-N…
We consider the control of the COVID-19 pandemic through a standard SIR compartmental model. This control is induced by the aggregation of individuals' decisions to limit their social interactions: when the epidemic is ongoing, an…
In this paper we study the diffusion of an SIS-type epidemics on a network under the presence of a random environment, that enters in the definition of the infection rates of the nodes. Accordingly, we model the infection rates in the form…
We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic Susceptible $\to$ Infected $\to$ Recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time $t>0$, a strict lower bound on the expected…
We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we…
In a metapopulation network, infectious diseases spread widely because of the travel of individuals. In the present study, we consider a modified metapopulation Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with a latent period, which we call…
In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent p-coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…
In this paper we generalise a simple discrete time stochastic SIR type model defined by Tuckwell and Williams. The SIR model by Tuckwell and Williams assumes a homogeneous population, a fixed infectious period, and a strict transition from…
In this paper, we give a complete analysis of an SIS epidemiological model in a population of varying size with two dissimilar groups of infective individuals. It is mainly based on the discussion of the existence and stability of…
We propose a network behavioral-feedback Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model in which the interaction matrix describing the infection rates across subpopulations depends in feedback on the current epidemic state. This model…
Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights…
Infectious diseases typically spread over a contact network with millions of individuals, whose sheer size is a tremendous challenge to analysing and controlling an epidemic outbreak. For some contact networks, it is possible to group…
We calculate epidemic thresholds and investigate the dynamics of a disease in a networked metapopulation model. To study the specific role of mobility levels and network geometry, we utilize the SIR-Network model and consider a range of…
In epidemic modeling, the term infection strength indicates the ratio of infection rate and cure rate. If the infection strength is higher than a certain threshold -- which we define as the epidemic threshold - then the epidemic spreads…
In this paper, we study the spread of a classical SIR process on a two-layer random network, where the first layer represents the households, while the second layer models the contacts outside the households by a random scale-free graph. We…