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Motivated by wide-ranging applications such as video delivery over networks using Multiple Description Codes, congestion control, and inventory management, we study the state-tracking of a Markovian random process with a known transition…
We consider an optimal stopping problem where a constraint is placed on the distribution of the stopping time. Reformulating the problem in terms of so-called measure-valued martingales allows us to transform the marginal constraint into an…
We revisit closed-loop performance guarantees for Model Predictive Control in the deterministic and stochastic cases, which extend to novel performance results applicable to receding horizon control of Partially Observable Markov Decision…
Stochastic process discovery is concerned with deriving a model capable of reproducing the stochastic character of observed executions of a given process, stored in a log. This leads to an optimisation problem in which the model's parameter…
Consider a probability measure supported by a regular geodesic ball in a manifold. For any p larger than or equal to 1 we define a stochastic algorithm which converges almost surely to the p-mean of the measure. Assuming furthermore that…
A decision maker records measurements of a finite-state Markov chain corrupted by noise. The goal is to decide when the Markov chain hits a specific target state. The decision maker can choose from a finite set of sampling intervals to pick…
Mathematical models for complex systems are often accompanied with uncertainties. The goal of this paper is to extract a stochastic differential equation governing model with observation on stationary probability distributions. We develop a…
The problem of sequentially finding an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) sequence that is drawn from a probability distribution $f_1$ by searching over multiple sequences, some of which are drawn from $f_1$ and the others of…
Isolating slower dynamics from fast fluctuations has proven remarkably powerful, but how do we proceed from partial observations of dynamical systems for which we lack underlying equations? Here, we construct maximally-predictive states by…
Suppose $N$ independent Bernoulli trials are observed sequentially at random times of a mixed binomial process. The task is to maximise, by using a nonanticipating stopping strategy, the probability of stopping at the last success. We focus…
Most methods proposed to uncover communities in complex networks rely on combinatorial graph properties. Usually an edge-counting quality function, such as modularity, is optimized over all partitions of the graph compared against a null…
We present a Markov-chain analysis of blockwise-stochastic algorithms for solving partially block-separable optimization problems. Our main contributions to the extensive literature on these methods are statements about the Markov operators…
We consider sensor scheduling as the optimal observability problem for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP). This model fits to the cases where a Markov process is observed by a single sensor which needs to be dynamically…
The telegraph process models a random motion with finite velocity and it is usually proposed as an alternative to diffusion models. The process describes the position of a particle moving on the real line, alternatively with constant…
As an alternative to the well-known methods of "chaining" and "bracketing" that have been developed in the study of random fields, a new method, which is based on a stochastic maximal inequality derived by using It\^o's formula and on a new…
Sequential change diagnosis is the joint problem of detection and identification of a sudden and unobservable change in the distribution of a random sequence. In this problem, the common probability law of a sequence of i.i.d. random…
Time estimation is a fundamental task that underpins precision measurement, global navigation systems, financial markets, and the organisation of everyday life. Many biological processes also depend on time estimation by nanoscale clocks,…
In this paper, we present a new, optimization-based method to exhibit cyclic behavior in non-reversible stochastic processes. While our method is general, it is strongly motivated by discrete simulations of ordinary differential equations…
Change point detection plays a fundamental role in many real-world applications, where the goal is to analyze and monitor the behaviour of a data stream. In this paper, we study change detection in binary streams. To this end, we use a…
The problem of sequentially detecting a moving anomaly which affects different parts of a sensor network with time is studied. Each network sensor is characterized by a non-anomalous and anomalous distribution, governing the generation of…