Related papers: Aerodynamic Models for Hurricanes II. Model of the…
Aerodynamic models are developed to describe coherent structures and transport processes in hurricanes moving over open seas. The models consist of the lower boundary layer and upper adiabatic layer. Except friction at the air/sea…
The third paper of the series (see previous ones in Refs.[1-2]) discusses basic physicalprocesses in the (quasi-) steady hurricane boundary layer (HBL), develops an approximate airflow model, establishes the HBL structure, and presents…
This, fourth paper of the series (see previous papers in Refs.[1-3]) derives approximate equations for future numerical studies of initial evolution of hurricanes, develops new analytical models of hurricane genesis and maturing, and…
In this series of papers, an analytical theory for the early stage (tropical storm stage) of hurricane development is proposed. In Part I, a linear theory and a nonlinear theory have been formulated. It was found in Part I that the linear…
Boundary layer processes drive the air-sea exchange of momentum, heat, and moisture that powers and shapes hurricanes. The height of the boundary layer is a critical parameter in engineering and meteorological models of hurricane wind…
Theoretical analyses of the hurricane boundary layer have traditionally relied on slab models, which provide a limited description of wind profiles. Literature on height-resolving methods is typically based on linear analyses, which may…
We describe results from the second stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. We now attempt to model the unconditional variance of fluctuations around…
A theoretical formulation for the early stage (Tropical Storm stage) of hurricane development is proposed. These solutions are not only consistent with observations but also offer some new insights into hurricane properties. This is the…
The radius of maximum wind ($R_{max}$) in a hurricane governs the footprint of hazards, particularly damaging wind and rainfall. However, $R_{max}$ is noisy to observe directly and is poorly resolved in reanalyses and climate models. In…
A physical model is proposed for the prediction of the non-monotonic variation of the drag coefficient, C_d, with wind speed. The model approximates the effective C_d by the area-weighted averaging of the distinct drag coefficients…
A version of model is proposed, which is aimed for getting parameters of the atmospheric layer and upper water layer with account of the wind-wave state. The dynamics of the atmospheric boundary layer is realized in version of papers [1,…
Based on realistic estimates of geophysical conditions it is demonstrated that by practical means; (1) the intensity of a hurricane can be diminished before making landfall; (2) and other circumstances, a potential hurricane might be…
One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the…
Storm surge, the onshore rush of sea water caused by the high winds and low pressure associated with a hurricane, can compound the effects of inland flooding caused by rainfall, leading to loss of property and loss of life for residents of…
We compare two methods for making predictions of the climatological distribution of the number of hurricanes making landfall along short sections of the North American coastline. The first method uses local data, and the second method uses…
Atlantic Canada faces significant hurricane threats from damaging winds and coastal flooding that are projected to intensify under climate change. This study adopts a two-stage framework. First, the evolution of wind and coastal-flood…
Conventional hurricane track generation methods typically depend on biased outputs from Global Climate Models (GCMs), which undermines their accuracy in the context of climate change. We present a novel dynamic bias correction framework…
The objective of this paper is to employ machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques to obtain from input data (storm features) available in or derived from the HURDAT2 database models capable of simulating important hurricane…
We present results from the sixth stage of a project to build a statistical hurricane model. Previous papers have described our modelling of the tracks, genesis, and lysis of hurricanes. In our track model we have so far employed a normal…
The universal instability mechanism in an ascending moist air flow is theoretically proposed and analyzed. Its origin comes to the conflict between two processes: the increasing of pressure forcing applied to the boundary layer and the…