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We define a characteristic function for probability measures on the signatures of geometric rough paths. We determine sufficient conditions under which a random variable is uniquely determined by its expected signature, thus partially…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-19 Ilya Chevyrev , Terry Lyons

Stochastic partial differential equations of second order with two unknown parameters are studied. Based on ergodicity, two suitable families of minimum constrast estimators are introduced. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-12 Josef Janak

We study the estimation of time-homogeneous drift functions in multivariate stochastic differential equations with known diffusion coefficient, from multiple trajectories observed at high frequency over a fixed time horizon. We formulate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-23 Marcos Tapia Costa , Nikolas Kantas , George Deligiannidis

We develop a consistent method for estimating the parameters of a rich class of path-dependent SDEs, called signature SDEs, which can model general path-dependent phenomena. Path signatures are iterated integrals of a given path with the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-29 Pardis Semnani , Vincent Guan , Elina Robeva , Darrick Lee

We study a class of linear first and second order partial differential equations driven by weak geometric $p$-rough paths, and prove the existence of a unique solution for these equations. This solution depends continuously on the driving…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2008-03-24 Michael Caruana , Peter Friz

We study a class of semi-implicit Taylor-type numerical methods that are easy to implement and designed to solve multidimensional stochastic differential equations driven by a general rough noise, e.g. a fractional Brownian motion. In the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-06-25 Sebastian Riedel , Yue Wu

We investigate the problem of nonparametric estimation of the trend for stochastic differential equations with delay and driven by a fractional Brownian motion through the method of kernel-type estimation for the estimation of a probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-09 B. L. S. Prakasa Rao

A theory of differential equations driven by a non-differentiable path has recently been developed by Lyons. We develop an alternative approach to this theory, using (modified Euler approximations), and investigate its applicability to…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-10-04 A. M. Davie

We introduce a simulation-based, amortised Bayesian inference scheme to infer the parameters of random walks. Our approach learns the posterior distribution of the walks' parameters with a likelihood-free method. In the first step a graph…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-07 Hippolyte Verdier , François Laurent , Alhassan Cassé , Christian Vestergaard , Jean-Baptiste Masson

Strongly consistent and asymptotic normal estimators of the Hurst index of a stochastic differential equation driven by a fractional Brownian motion are proposed. The estimators are based on discrete observations of the underlying process.

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-18 K. Kubilius , V. Skorniakov , D. Melichov

We study the approximation of stochastic differential equations driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H>1/2$. For the mean-square error at a single point we derive the optimal rate of convergence that can be achieved…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-19 Andreas Neuenkirch

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to describe dynamical systems in science, but identifying parameters that explain experimental measurements is challenging. In particular, although ODEs are differentiable and would…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-22 Jonas Beck , Nathanael Bosch , Michael Deistler , Kyra L. Kadhim , Jakob H. Macke , Philipp Hennig , Philipp Berens

This paper establishes the averaging method to a coupled system consisting of two stochastic differential equations which has a slow component driven by fractional Brownian motion (FBM) with less regularity $1/3< H \leq 1/2$ and a fast…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-26 Bin Pei , Robert Hesse , Bjoern Schmalfuss , Yong Xu

Chaotic deterministic dynamics of a particle can give rise to diffusive Brownian motion. In this paper, we compute analytically the diffusion coefficient for a particular two-dimensional stochastic layer induced by the kicked Harper map.…

chao-dyn · Physics 2008-02-03 P. Leboeuf

Stochastic differential equations and stochastic dynamics are good models to describe stochastic phenomena in real world. In this paper, we study N independent stochastic processes Xi(t) with real entries and the processes are determined by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Min Dai , Jinqiao Duan , Junjun Liao , Xiangjun Wang

The movement of a particle described by Brownian motion is quantified by a single parameter, $D$, the diffusion constant. The estimation of $D$ from a discrete sequence of noisy observations is a fundamental problem in biological single…

Subcellular Processes · Quantitative Biology 2016-04-13 Peter K. Relich , Mark J. Olah , Patrick J. Cutler , Keith A. Lidke

We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-10-26 Tobias Sutter , Arnab Ganguly , Heinz Koeppl

We prove a large deviation principle for the slow-fast rough differential equations under the controlled rough path framework. The driver rough paths are lifted from the mixed fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H\in…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-05 Xiaoyu Yang , Yong Xu

The expected signature uniquely determines the law of a random rough path under a moment-growth condition, yet finite-sample bounds for estimating it from a single long dependent trajectory have been lacking. We study a stationary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-21 Bryson Schenck

Ordinary differential equations are widely-used in the field of systems biology and chemical engineering to model chemical reaction networks. Numerous techniques have been developed to estimate parameters like rate constants, initial…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2012-07-06 Daniel Kaschek , Jens Timmer