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The goal of any estimation study is an interval estimation of a the parameter(s) of interest. These estimations are mostly expressed using empirical confidence intervals that are based on sample point estimates of the corresponding…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-03 Ilya Novikov

We study exact confidence intervals and two-sided hypothesis tests for univariate parameters of stochastically increasing discrete distributions, such as the binomial and Poisson distributions. It is shown that several popular methods for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-03 MÅns Thulin , Silvelyn Zwanzig

Observational healthcare data offer the potential to estimate causal effects of medical products on a large scale. However, the confidence intervals and p-values produced by observational studies only account for random error and fail to…

Applications · Statistics 2024-05-02 Jami J. Mulgrave , David Madigan , George Hripcsak

We consider the nonparametric multivariate isotonic regression problem, where the regression function is assumed to be nondecreasing with respect to each predictor. Our goal is to construct a Bayesian credible interval for the function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-24 Kang Wang , Subhashis Ghosal

A new method is proposed for the correction of confidence intervals when the original interval does not have the correct nominal coverage probabilities in the frequentist sense. The proposed method is general and does not require any…

Computation · Statistics 2013-08-30 P. Menendez , Y. Fan , P. H. Garthwaite , S. A. Sisson

The formalism that allows to take into account the error sigma_b of the expected mean background b in the statistical analysis of a Poisson process with the frequentistic method is presented. It is shown that the error sigma_b cannot be…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2011-07-19 C. Giunti

In an empirical Bayes analysis, we use data from repeated sampling to imitate inferences made by an oracle Bayesian with extensive knowledge of the data-generating distribution. Existing results provide a comprehensive characterization of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-09 Nikolaos Ignatiadis , Stefan Wager

We develop and apply two calibration procedures for checking the coverage of approximate Bayesian credible sets including intervals estimated using Monte Carlo methods. The user has an ideal prior and likelihood, but generates a credible…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-19 Jeong Eun Lee , Geoff K. Nicholls , Robin J. Ryder

Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a posteriori probability values, as the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2021-12-15 Will J. Percival , Oliver Friedrich , Elena Sellentin , Alan Heavens

Conformal prediction has emerged as a cutting-edge methodology in statistics and machine learning, providing prediction intervals with finite-sample frequentist coverage guarantees. Yet, its interplay with Bayesian statistics, often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Nina Deliu , Brunero Liseo

Bayesian composite likelihood estimation of the tail index of a heavy-tailed distribution is addressed when data are randomly right-censored. Maximum a posteriori and mean posterior estimators are constructed under Jeffrey's prior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-18 Abdelkader Ameraoui , Jean-François Dupuy , Kamal Boukhetala

This article describes an efficient procedure for computing approximate confidence levels for searches for new particles where the expected signal and background levels are small enough to require the use of Poisson statistics. The results…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2008-11-26 Thomas Junk

The plausibility of uncommon events and miracles based on testimony of such an event has been much discussed. When analyzing the probabilities involved, it has mostly been assumed that the common events can be taken as data in the…

Applications · Statistics 2016-03-01 V. Palonen

Bayesian statistics is concerned with conducting posterior inference for the unknown quantities in a given statistical model. Conventional Bayesian inference requires the specification of a probabilistic model for the observed data, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-11 David T. Frazier , Christopher Drovandi , David J. Nott

It is shown that all the Frequentist methods are equivalent from a statistical point of view, but the physical significance of the confidence intervals depends on the method. The Bayesian Ordering method is presented and confronted with the…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 C. Giunti

This paper develops a Bayesian framework for robust causal inference from longitudinal observational data. Many contemporary methods rely on structural assumptions, such as factor models, to adjust for unobserved confounding, but they can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-20 Angelos Alexopoulos , Nikolaos Demiris

In this article, we derive an explicit formula for computing confidence interval for the mean of a bounded random variable. Moreover, we have developed multistage point estimation methods for estimating the mean value with prescribed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-29 Xinjia Chen

Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-26 Ryan Martin

We propose a way to construct fiducial distributions for a multidimensional parameter using a step-by-step conditional procedure related to the inferential importance of the components of the parameter. For discrete models, in which the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-07 Piero Veronese , Eugenio Melilli

The possibility of construction of continuous analogue of Poisson distribution with the search of bounds of confidence intervals for parameter of Poisson distribution is discussed. Also, in the article is shown that the true value of a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 S. I. Bityukov , N. V. Krasnikov , V. A. Taperechkina