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Subdiffusion equation and molecule survival equation, both with Caputo fractional time derivatives with respect to another functions $g_1$ and $g_2$, respectively, are used to describe diffusion of a molecule that can disappear at any time…
In this paper we consider a stochastic process that may experience random reset events which bring suddenly the system to the starting value and analyze the relevant statistical magnitudes. We focus our attention on monotonous…
The paper investigates a discrete time Binomial risk model with different types of polices and shock events may influence some of the claim sizes. It is shown that this model can be considered as a particular case of the classical compound…
This paper presents a convenient framework for modeling default process and pricing derivative securities involving credit risk. The framework provides an integrated view of credit valuation adjustment by linking distance-to-default,…
Let $X$ be the constrained random walk on ${\mathbb Z}_+^2$ having increments $(1,0)$, $(-1,1)$, $(0,-1)$ with jump probabilities $\lambda(M_k)$, $\mu_1(M_k)$, and $\mu_2(M_k)$ where $M$ is an irreducible aperiodic finite state Markov…
The issue of model risk in default modeling has been known since inception of the Academic literature in the field. However, a rigorous treatment requires a description of all the possible models, and a measure of the distance between a…
We consider the problem of determining escape probabilities from an interval of a general compound renewal process with drift. This problem is reduced to the solution of a certain integral equation. In an actuarial situation where only…
We study the asymptotic tail probability of the first-passage time over a moving boundary for a random walk conditioned to return to zero, where the increments of the random walk have finite variance. Typically, the asymptotic tail behavior…
We consider a Random Walk in Random Environment (RWRE) moving in an i.i.d.\ random field of obstacles. When the particle hits an obstacle, it disappears with a positive probability. We obtain quenched and annealed bounds on the tails of the…
In this paper, we study the dynamics of a random walker diffusing on a disordered one-dimensional lattice with random trappings. The distribution of escape probabilities is computed exactly for any strength of the disorder. These…
This paper proceeds an approximate calculation of ultimate time survival probability for bi-seasonal discrete time risk model when premium rate equals two. The same model with income rate equal to one was investigated in 2014 by Damarackas…
We study memory based random walk models to understand diffusive motion in crowded heterogeneous environment. The models considered are non-Markovian as the current move of the random walk models is determined by randomly selecting a move…
In the context of countable groups of polynomial volume growth, we consider a large class of random walks that are allowed to take long jumps along multiple subgroups according to power law distributions. For such a random walk, we study…
We consider a system of independent one-dimensional random walks in a common random environment under the condition that the random walks are transient with positive speed $v_P$. We give upper bounds on the quenched probability that at…
We consider a generalization of the so-called elephant random walk by introducing multiple elephants moving along the integer line, $\mathbb{Z}$. When taking a new step, each elephant considers not only its own previous steps but also the…
We consider Markov processes, which describe e.g. queueing network processes, in a random environment which influences the network by determining random breakdown of nodes, and the necessity of repair thereafter. Starting from an explicit…
In the pursuit of modelling a loan's probability of default (PD) over its lifetime, repeat default events are often ignored when using Cox Proportional Hazard (PH) models. Excluding such events may produce biased and inaccurate…
The determination of mean first-passage time (MFPT) for random walks in networks is a theoretical challenge, and is a topic of considerable recent interest within the physics community. In this paper, according to the known connections…
We propose a novel probabilistic model to facilitate the learning of multivariate tail dependence of multiple financial assets. Our method allows one to construct from known random vectors, e.g., standard normal, sophisticated joint…
This paper presents the first application of Gaussian Mixture Copula Models to the statistical modeling of driving scenarios for the safety validation of automated driving systems. Knowledge of the joint probability distribution of scenario…